Flemington Tips for Newmarket Handicap 2024

Is this the biggest test for superstar New Zealand mare ‘Imperatriz’?

While this field is not the hardest opposition she has faced, she carries top weight (58kg) here which presents a new challenge for the NZ superstar.

While she has carried more weight before, none of those races were Group Ones.

It creates great interest for punters, as it completely opens the race up to more possibilities other than another ‘Imperatriz’ victory.

Let’s see if she can be beat.

 

 

Track Conditions

The track is currently rated as a Good 4 and with Saturday predicted to get to 36 degrees, we can expect a Good 3 track.

The running rail is out 4m the entire circuit and this should see every runner get their chance.

 

Flemington Race 5 – Newmarket Handicap (1200m)

The Map

Should see the globe trotter The Astrologist (13) lead the field up and will get a soft lead.

If the field splits into two groups across the straight, it will see Imperatriz (3) leading on the opposite side to the grandstand under no sufferance.

Cylinder (12), Magic Time (11), Benedetta (10) and New Zealander Master Fay (9) should all be settling in behind The Astrologist.

Bella Nipotina (4) will look to track the favourite Imperatriz (3) while the other major player Buenos Noches (8) will likely scoot across to follow the two mares.

This will see the race run at an even tempo and with a lot of the main chances going to be up towards the pace.

It is hard to see any of the backmarkers, outside of Buenos Noches, being a factor in the finish.

 

 

The Favourite

It is crazy to think that a racehorse with 18 wins from 24 starts and a 9-time Group 1 winner would have such question marks over her leading into another Group 1 event.

However, these are well and truly justified by the fact that she is looking to achieve a feat that only one other mare has accomplished in the last century of this great race.

That feat is winning the Newmarket Handicap as a mare carrying 58kg or more.

Only the Invincible ‘Black Caviar’ has achieved it in the last century.

To win, she would need to be other-worldly. I believe she is that.

She has never been defeated on a dry track (11/11) and has 5 wins from 6 second-up.

She gets the race run to suit and will have her main dangers trying to chase her down.

It will not be easy and she will have to dig down very deep to continue her winning run, but she has not drawn comparisons to the invincible ‘Black Caviar’ for no reason.

 

 

Tips

She has to do something that only ‘Black Caviar’ was able to do and while she is not quite at that level of greatness, she is not far off and can get the job done again here.

Can’t go against Imperatriz here, especially when we are getting a somewhat backable price about her.

She will make them try and catch her and she showed in the Lightning Stakes that she is able to dig in and fight to get the victory.

She will get challenged here and it won’t be an easy watch, but I'm expecting her to show that she is ready to be up at the level of the immortals.

 

The strong place and small win bet I will be having in the race is with Bella Nipotina.

Solid run first-up in the Lightning behind the Kiwi champion and she gets a favourable 2.5kg swing in the weights.

Will be able to peel off Imperatriz’s back and lay down a challenge.

 

Cylinder the 3yo has been quite forgotten here and is right in the mix carrying just 51.5 kg.

While he has 2.5-lengths to make up on the New Zealand star from the Lightning Stakes, he does drop 4kg from that run and gets a 5.5kg swing in his favour on Imperatriz.

3yos have won this race 3 out of the last 5 years and Godolphin won this race with one last year in ‘In Secret’.

 

Buenos Noches is a big danger considering he got within half-a-length of beating Imperatriz in the Champions Sprint in Spring.

Gets his chance here not having to carry more weight than her but he is short enough in the market considering the race won’t be run to suit.

 

1^st Imperatriz

2^nd Bella Nipotina

3^rd Cylinder

4^th Buenos Noches

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.