Flemington Tips for Australian Guineas 2024

After the 2YOs took centre stage in last week's Blue Diamond, the 3YOs are the main attraction this Saturday at Flemington in the Group 1 Australian Guineas.

Following a blistering first-up victory at this track, VRC Derby winner ‘Riff Rocket’ is a dominant favourite to win his second Group 1 at $2.50.

However, with plenty against him, can any punter justify that price? Especially against such a high quality field of 3yos!

Let’s take a deeper look.

 

 

Track Conditions

The track is currently rated as a Good 4 and with fine weather forecasted leading up to, and the day of, it will remain that way on Saturday.

After previously being in the True position two weeks ago, the running rail comes out a touch to the 2m position for the entire circuit.

However, this won’t make much difference to how the track played a fortnight ago and every runner should get their chance.

 

Flemington Race 8 – Australian Guineas (1600m)

The Map

There is very little speed in this race so New Zealander The Pendragon (14) will be able to roll across from the outside gate and find the top with ease.

Who joins the 3yo US Navy Flag Gelding is a bit of a guessing game, but I suspect Hey Fat Cat (1) will use the inside draw to either lead or settle right behind the pace.

Many of the big players in this race map to be just behind the speed or better than midfield including Otago (5), Snow Patrol (7), Veight (6) and Verdad (3), while Southport Tycoon (4) should be around midfield.

The two high fancies including favourite Riff Rocket (9) and King Colorado (12) will be hoping for a solid pace to be able to run on from the rear of the field.

 

The Favourite

Riff Rocket deserves to be favourite after the brilliant win two weeks back over 1400m, as well as being a VRC Derby winner.

The high class 3yo Gelding is a winner of 5 from his 8 starts and 3 of those wins have come at Flemington.

He drops in the weights here second-up and the rise in distance will obviously be of more benefit to him.

 

However, while he has drawn really well, the race shape looks as though he will be up against it and will have to pull out something special to win.

While there is no doubt he is a special horse, at $2.50 for a backmarker and a worry on whether he gets the pace to suit, he is quite easy to oppose here.

 

Riff Rocket storms to victory last start at Flemington

 

Tips

Took on the superstar ‘Mr Brightside’ in the C.F Orr with this 3yo Colt and despite not getting the result there, I am sticking with Veight here coming back up against his own age.

The form from the C.F Orr has been franked with ‘Mr Brightside’ winning again since and ‘Buffalo River’ and ‘Pericles’ both running well in the Futurity out of the C.F Orr.

He maps to get the perfect run in the race from barrier 6, Damian Lane sticks for the ride and after finishing runner-up in the Caulfield Guineas in the Spring, he is ready to add a Group 1 Australian Guineas win to his resume.

One of the best bets of the day.

 

Southport Tycoon has be given a chance considering he went within 0.2 of a length of beating Veight first-up at Moonee Valley.

He was beaten as a short-priced favourite last start at Caulfield in a stirring battle with Snow Patrol.

He will be at peak fitness third-up and maps to get a perfect run also from barrier 4 with Jamie Kah aboard.

 

When giving Southport Tycoon a strong chance of being in the placings, naturally, Snow Patrol must go in also.

He will only get better from the first-up effort and could potentially improve a few more lengths, considering this is only his fifth career run.

He will be further back than his previous two runs but will be coming home strong.

 

Can’t knock Riff Rocket’s class and while the race shape will likely cost him victory, he will be the one that runs on the best from the back.

The rise in distance second-up obviously suits and he is a proven winner, but we can often see 3yos win first-up then be a bit flat the following start.

Not knocking the horse but certainly knocking that price.

 

1^st Veight

2^nd Southport Tycoon

3^rd Snow Patrol

4^th Riff Rocket

 

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