Flemington Tips for Australian Cup 2024

This Saturday sees another cracking edition of what has become one of the best modern-day thoroughbred rivalries, Mr Brightside versus Pride Of Jenni.

The mare has come up trumpts in 2 of their last 3 clashes and while the market says they are the two to beat, I’m looking elsewehere.

 

 

Check out the Dean and Mick's thoughts on the Australian Cup

 

Flemington Race 8 – Australian Cup (2000m)

Track Conditions

The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather forecast, that will not change.

The running rail is back to the True position after being out 4m for the Newmarket Handicap meeting, and we will see the track play evenly.

 

Speed Map

There will be no surprises with who is on pace as multiple Group 1 winning mare Pride Of Jenni (7) will fly out the gates and set a strong pace, as she normally does.

With a favourable draw this time, Mr Brightside (1) will look to settle closer to the pace after being too far back in the All-Star Mile.

Vow & Declare (9) will look to slide across from the wide barrier and settle just off Pride Of Jenni, whilst Young Werther (3) will also apply early pressure.

New Zealand superstar mare Legarto (2) has been a few pairs back in her last two starts across the ditch and she will be positioned there again from the inside draw.

Meanwhile the defending champ, Cascadian (8), and last start winner, Atishu (5), will drop back in the field and look to build into the race off the back of the strong tempo. 

 

The Favourite

Despite having his colours lowered by Pride Of Jenni in the All-Star Mile, multiple Group 1 winning superstar Mr Brightside holds favouritism for this clash.

Did the barrier cost him last start, or was he beaten by a better horse?

That is the question we will find out as Mr Brightside draws barrier 1 and will have zero excuses in running.

You can have a lot of trust in him as he usually performs when fourth-up (5:3-1-0) and has yet to miss a top 2 finish in his last 12 starts.

As good as he is, $2.40 is way too short in this.

He has yet to win at 2000m and while he went extremely close to ticking that box in last year’s Cox Plate, until he does, I can’t take that price.

 

 

Tips

While this edition of the Australian Cup is far more stacked than last year’s, Cascadian looks perfectly set up to have a big chance of going back-to-back.

I loved his run from the back last start in the All-Star Mile and Ben Melham sticks for the ride after mentioning post-race last start that ‘he is right on track for the Australian Cup.

He closes the distance on Mr Brightside and Pride Of Jenni jumping up to the 2000m and comes to a track that suits his style best.

A huge chance of causing the upset.

 

 

Mr Brightside never runs a bad race and while he has yet to win over 2000m, he will still run a strong race and be around the finish.

I can’t justify the $2.40 price whatsoever.

 

Kiwi superstar Legarto commands plenty of respect for what she has been able to accomplish across the ditch and did win last year’s Australian Guineas at this track.

Like Mr Brightside, she rarely runs a bad race, maps well and should be around the placings.

 

Pride Of Jenni continues to defy the doubters with her ‘run them into the ground’ nature and you have to now overlook her at a massive risk of having egg on your face.

That’s what I’m doing here but purely from a price perspective with the $2.70 being poisonous.

Like Mr Brightside, she has never won at the 2000m and does not have the most appealing third-up record (5:1-0-0).

Think she runs well again but they overcome her this time around.

 

1st Cascadian

2nd Mr Brightside

3rd Legarto

4th Pride Of Jenni

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.