Flemington Horse Racing Tips for the Lightning Stakes 18/2/23

A drama-filled C.F. Orr Stakes kicked off the Autumn carnival for Victorians last wee, hogging the headlines and firing discussion across social media.

Favourite punters and ‘Nature Strip’ followers will be hoping for nothing similar as the ‘World’s Best Sprinter’ returns to kick-off his Autumn campaign in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.

This race has always been a perfect kick-off point for some of the country's best sprinters and that is no different this year with a stellar field assembled to battle it out.

‘Nature Strip’ comes up as the $2 favourite for the race and James McDonald has come down to Victoria to ride the world-beating sprinter.

The race also features three 3YOs, a returning ‘Marabi’ off a near year-long spell, former New Zealander ‘Roch ‘N’ Horse’ after beating ‘Nature Strip’ in a boilover in the VRC Sprint in Spring and Golden Eagle winner ‘I Wish I Win’.

 

Track Conditions 

With hot weather conditions all week, the Flemington track is currently a Good 4 but is a solid chance of coming up as a Good 3.

The running rail is in the True position which will see the track play evenly with a slight advantage to horses who settle midfield and are drawn middle to outside barriers.

 

Race 7 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m) @ 16:20

The Map

Nature Strip will likely take up his favoured role in front from barrier 1 and see Marabi join him up on pace to set the speed for the race.

Roch ‘N’ Horse and Fire settle in behind the two leaders and I Wish I Win, September Run and Bella Nipotina settle at the rear of the group closest to the inside rail.

3YO filly Coolangatta will take up the running of the group down the middle of the track with the other two 3YOs likely to follow her in Millane and Buenos Noches.

Jockey Mark Zahra will have the decision to make aboard Queensland visitor Baller on which group to join but will settle at the rear either way.

 

The Favourite

There is not much you need to say about Nature Strip. He’s the World’s Best Sprinter and he flies fresh (11:6-3-0 first-up).

He is a 1000m specialist and loves racing up the Flemington straight (10 starts at this track for 6 wins and 3 placings).

Was narrowly beaten by 3YO ‘Home Affairs’ last year when attempting to win two-in-a-row after winning this race in 2021.

He has been a very short-priced favourite in this race twice before and finished 4^th in 2020 and 2^nd in 2022 respectively.

He has come up with barrier 1 here, will find the top comfortably and it takes a brave man to bet against the champ up the Flemington straight.

 

History/Key Form-lines

• ‘Home Affairs’ winning last year was the first 3yo since ‘Fastnet Rock’ in 2005 to win the Lightning Stakes. There are three 3yos in the race this year (Coolangatta, Millane & Buenos Noches)
• Favourites have won this race on six occasions since 2006 but a favourite has not won this race since 2016 when ‘Chautauqua got it done at $2.80.
• The VRC Sprint Classic (now the Champions Sprint), run in November, has produced eight winners since 2010.
• 27 of the last 33 winners of this race have done so when resuming first-up
• In the last 15 years, only two mares have won this race outside of Black Caviar (who won three-in-a-row).
• In the last 15 years, 8 winners have come from either barriers 1 & 2.

 

Best Racing Tips

While he is not at a good price to have a bet on, Nature Strip is the one to beat here.

His record fresh, at this track and distance is immense and has plenty of statistics in his favour to suggest he can win.

Has won 4 of his last 5 first-up runs and will take a mountain of beating here if he is at his best like his trials and jump outs leading in suggest he is.

 

Marabi is certainly the most interesting runner in this race.

The Group 1 Oakleigh Plate winner has been off the scene since this time last year after she was beaten for the first time in her short career as an odds-on favourite in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley.

She has been relatively untouched in her two jump outs leading in and will stick on well up on-pace with Nature Strip here.

 

Roch ‘N’ Horse usually takes a few runs to get into his best form but his record up the Flemington straight is undeniable (4 starts for 2 wins and 2 placings) and he has won two of the top sprinting races already in his career at this track (Newmarket and Champions Sprint, where he beat ‘Nature Strip’).

He can follow Nature Strip in the run and be in the placings.

 

I Wish I Win resumes at a less than ideal distance for him but he has a lethal turn of foot and has looked very sharp at his two jump outs leading in.

Expecting he will be hitting the line strongly late and will have ‘back me next start’ written all over him after Saturday.

 

1^st Nature Strip

2^nd Marabi

3^rd Roch ‘N’ Horse

4^th I Wish I Win