Flemington Horse Racing Tips for Australian Cup Prelude 11/3/23

In just two weeks time we will witness another edition of the Group 1 Australian Cup.

A race that has been won by some of the all-time greats of the turf including Fiorente, Zipping, Makybe Diva, Lonhro, Northerly, Octagonal, Saintly, Vo Rogue and Bonecrusher just to name a few.

The Australian Cup Prelude is a key lead-up race and despite some of the top contenders in the market not taking place, this Prelude has attracted a solid field.

Let's break down the race and find the winner to help fill the bank up in the race before the Group 1 Newmarket.

 

Track Conditions

Track is currently rated as a Good 4 and with fine weather forecasted in the lead-up to the race, that rating will not change.

The running rail is out 4m, after previously being out 2m last week for the Australian Guineas meeting.

There is generally no disadvantage to any runner regardless of barrier or position in running when the rail is between 3-7m at Flemington.

 

Race 6 – Group 1 Australian Cup Prelude (2000m)

The Map

I am expecting the Western Australian visitor Marocchino to shoot out from barrier 1 and find the front and be joined by favourite in the race Right You Are.

Last start winner Nobel Heights and 2020 Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare will come across from wide barriers and likely settle as the next pair behind the pace.

This should see favourite in the race Emissary look to settle midfield along with Surefire, Regal Power and Young Werther and the backmarkers will be Huetor and Yaphet.

The pace will be run at a moderate tempo to suit those better of midfield and closer to the speed.

However, the Flemington track always gives every horse its chance so don’t be deterred by a likely slow pace if looking at runners who will settle worse than midfield or backmarkers.

 

The Favourite

The 6yo son of So You Think from the star staying stable of Maher & Eustace, Right You Are, holds favouritism for the Prelude, like he has done in two of his last three starts.

The Gelding has always promised a lot but took a little bit of time to find his very best form.

He has been kept up for a while now (first race of the preparation was back in September last year) and is at peak fitness and performance.

This is the hardest field he has had to face this preparation but every time the stable has upped the bar, he has faced it and lept over it with ease.

Will get the race run to suit up on-pace and will certainly be right in the finish.

Change in jockey to Mark Zahra, due to Ethan Brown being out of action, could be a slight query but Zahra’s credentials maintain confidence.

 

Tips

Hard to go past last year’s Melbourne Cup runner-up and Geelong Cup winner Emissary here.

While he has yet to even run a place from four second-up runs, his second-up performance last preparation was very handy behind ‘Smokin Romans’ at this track and distance.

The race was not run to suit last start when the saddle shifted on ‘Deny Knowledge’ and caused it to set a frantic pace.

He will appreciate a much more slowly run race and allow his turn of foot to come into play.

Draws well, maps well and should prove hard to beat.

 

Right You Are is hard to knock.

He just continues lifting the bar the stable set for him by continuing to win despite rising through the grades.

He is at peak fitness now, at a trip he excels at and gets the race run to suit with him being on-pace outside the leader.

Zahra replacing regular rider Ethan Brown is the slight query with him.

 

Western Australian visitor Marocchino is a proper race horse and he proved that by knocking off ‘Steinem’ at Group 2 level at Ascot over the 2100m.

Was a terrific winner first-up over the 1800m at Ascot and the rise in distance second-up (6:2-0-0) suits.

He gets the race run to suit him with an easy lead from barrier 1.

Will have the favourite outside him to keep him honest and while the W.A horses have yet to fire here in Victoria this Autumn, this 6yo certainly has a top shot of being in the finish here.

 

Look for Vow And Declare to be running on well late just like he did last start behind Right You Are in the Listed Victoria Gold Cup at Sandown.

Will continue to improve this preparation and while he will be around the top 4 here, he is not ready to win just yet.

 

1^st Emissary

2^nd Right You Are

3^rd Marocchino

4^th Vow And Declare

Suggested Bet: Back Emissary to win and Marocchino to place