Flemington Horse Racing Tips for Australian Cup 2023

Saturday racing returns to Headquarters for the Group 1 Australian Cup over 2000m.

After having the Prelude a fortnight ago which was won by ‘Right You Are’, only four of the runners who competed in that event are in the final field of the Cup.

The Australian Cup has been run since 1863 and some of the best racehorses ever seen in Australia have won this race.

Some of those champions of the turf to win include Fiorente, Shocking, Zipping, Makybe Diva, Lonhro, Northerly, Octagonal, Saintly, Vo Rogue, Better Loosen Up, Let’s Elope and Bonecrusher to name a few in the last 30 years.

While this is not the strongest edition of the Australian Cup, it is a very good betting field with James Cummings-trained Cascadian currently the $3.50 favourite.

Many different form lines to look at for this, time to analyse!

 

Track Conditions

The track is currently rated as a Soft 5 and while plenty of rain fell on Wednesday night / Thursday morning, with relatively dry weather forecasted in the lead-up, the surface will be rated as a Good 4 for race day.

The running rail is out 8m for the meeting which is favourable to horses drawn inside-middle barriers settling midfield or towards the rear.

For runners who settle towards the pace, you generally want to be on horses drawn wide barriers that roll forward when the rail is out 8m.

 

Race 7 – Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m)

 

The Map

We should see the Western Australian horse Marocchino come across the field to find the front from barrier 13.

Right You Are will settle outside the leader or look to drop in behind for cover.

The Annabel Neasham-trained Numerian should be able to settle in behind the pace from barrier 1 and Mo’unga should be able to follow Marocchino across from the wide barrier to settle in a prominent position.

Regal Power, Nonconformist, Smokin Romans, Hezashocker, Pounding, Steinem, Bank Maur and El Patroness should all take up the positions around midfield.

The rest of the field, including the favourite Cascadian, should be seen at the rear of the field.

Look for them to run this at just a moderate/steady tempo.

 

The Favourite

Still not over his defeat in the All-Star Mile, where he was enormous coming from last to finish 2^nd behind Mr Brightside.

He gets a good chance for him to get his deserved victory here third-up in his preparation (9:3-0-1 record).

Steps out to the 2000m for the first time since his dominant Group 2 Hills Stakes win back in October, winning by 3.3 lengths over Numerian.

While he has never won at Flemington from 8 goes, he finished 5^th in last year’s Australian Cup and ran 2^nd in a McKinnon Stakes behind Zaaki in his two runs at this track and distance.

Will need some luck from the back, as often is the case in big fields such as these, but he is absolutely flying at the moment and will be awfully hard to hold out if he gets even luck.

 

History/Key Formlines

• A 3yo has not won this race since Super Cool in 2013
• Since 1998, only two mares have won the Australian Cup (Makybe Diva 2005 & Duais 2022)
• Since 2004, only two favourites have won this race (Fiorente 2014 & Humidor 2017)
• Barrier 8 has been the most successful barrier in this race since 1983 with 6 winners
• An Australian Cup winner has not jumped from barrier 1 in the last 40 years
• In the last 40 years, no Australian Cup winner has come from wider than barrier 14
• While favourites haven’t had the best record in terms of winning in recent years, they rarely finish outside of the top 4 with only 11 favourites in the last 40 years finishing worse than 4^th
• Since 2014, 6 Australian Cup winners have come through the Peter Young Stakes but only Fiorente was able to complete the double (something Steinem will attempt to do this year)

 

Free Horse Racing Tips

He is going to be very hard to beat here Cascadian.

Despite a few things being against him, the rise in distance to 2000m suits and he is set to peak third up.

His run in the All-Star Mile last week was breathtaking in defeat

I like the wide draw as it means he can stay out of danger and come into the race following the backs of some of the race's top winning hopes.

 

No horse has won from barrier 15 in the last 40 years so Mo’unga has plenty against him but also has the ability to overcome that and create history here.

His two recent runs for two 3rds in the Ranvet and Chipping Norton Stakes were sensational behind two absolute superstars and top Queen Elizabeth hopes next week in ‘Dubai Honour’ and ‘Anamoe’.

At peak fitness, yet to miss a placing at Flemington and should be in front for a long way.

 

Nonconformist was incredibly impressive winning the Blamey Stakes last start in dominant fashion when first-up (bucking his average first-up record).

While his record does not read overly well when second-up, he was able to put his first win when first-up on the board last start and can produce his first second-up win here.

Trainer Graeme Begg calls upon his number one jockey in Jordan Childs for the ride here and he should be making his run with Mo’unga.

 

I am expecting an improved run from Smokin Romans here up to the 2000m.

He went on a tear in the Spring when stepping out to the 2000m which included a Group 1 Turnbull Stakes victory at this track.

He has drawn very well to get a gun run in the race from barrier 5 and expecting him to hit his peak here third-up (3:1-1-0 record).

 

1^st Cascadian

2^nd Mo'unga

3^rd Nonconformist

4^th Smokin Romans

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