Fixed Odds not always the best bet

There are plenty of smart punters who claim that successful betting starts with the odds that you get when you bet, and they are 100% correct. If punters don't make some attempt to get a good price then they will have to back more winners to finish up in front. It's that simple. What I struggle to agree with however is the effort that many educated punters make to get what they consider to be the best odds, when there are simple bet types available that do all the work for you.

It may be hard to believe but Best Tote or SP odds offered by bookies perform better than Fixed Odds for the majority of Australian races. We have done the numbers on Saturday races for the past 6 months and Best Tote or SP performed better than the top fluctuating Fixed Odds price for 73% of races for the four main metropolitan race meetings across Australia. As an example we ran the analysis on last Saturday's races at Randwick, Caulfield, Doomben and Morphetville to poduce these results.

The figures show that Best Tote or SP price results last Saturday performed a little under the 6 month average however it was still the best option on the day.

Best Tote or SP perform better than stats say

The Best Tote or SP (BTSP) option is actually performing better than these statistics tell us as they assume that the Fixed Odds punter is getting the Top Fluc each time they bet. Even the smartest punters in Australia cannot predict the top price fluctuations. It's the toughest game in town. The BTSP price however is the same for every punter that takes them. When we compare the BTSP price with the average between the low and highest Fixed Odd fluctuation the percentage of races where punters got the best price using BTSP goes up to 67%.

Spend more time reading the racing form

I acknowledge that the Top Fluc is not necessarily the best odds a punter can get across all bookies. However it is also unlikely that a punter will achieve the top of the market each time they bet. In addition to the impossible task of picking the top of the market, it is also a very laborious task to fund multiple bookie accounts and react quickly to place your bet in a small timeframe before the price changes.

One of the other significant advantages that punters can get from the information we have presented here is time. Time saved comparing odds between bookmakers and better spent reviewing the form or reassessing top selections in light of new information about a race. In addition to saving time it saves the punter the hassle of funding several betting accounts in case that bookie happens to fluctuate higher on any given race. The beauty with the BTSP bet type is that once the bet is placed there is nothing else to do.

A concession to real value punters

I acknowledge the small population of punters out there that will read this dismissively as they do receive value from Fixed Odds markets. In their case it is about the assurance they get that the price will not change. They are smart enough to price their own market and when they find odds offered above their calculated True Odds, they are looking to take advantage of that margin. The lock-in nature of the Fixed Odds bet type is the key value offered here.

As I am writing this article I am reflecting on another real example of Best Tote or SP showing itself to be the superior odds choice. I received some information from a very astute punter. The kind of analyst that calls infrequently but when he does it is usually very good information. He gave me Happy Clapper in the last at Randwick yesterday. He told me it was $4.60 fixed but was likely to come into $3. My immediate reaction was to take the fixed price, but then I thought that I should back the findings that I have just written about. As it turned out the price blew out to a starting price of $5.50 and the best tote price was $6.30. Happy punter!

Mike Steward