False favourites Four indicators the shortest priced horse is under the odds

Punters will often describe a runner as a false favourite, unfortunately we usually only hear about it after the race has run when the punter making the claim feels vindicated in his preconceived views about the favourite's overrated chance. Social punters don't have the time to perform analysis and computations necessary to set their own market which ultimately leads to the identification of overrated runners, so we've identified the four top indicators that raise red flags over the most favoured horse's chances of winning.

Last Start Winners

One of the biggest drivers of favouritism is a last start win. Intuitively it tells the market that the horse is good enough to win at a certain grade. But there are other factors that punters should consider when they go with the market tide and get on board at it's next start. For starters statistics indicate that last start winners don't often back-up with a win when they next race. Statistics from this Saturday's Canterbury meeting show that only 1 in 5 last start winners actually won again at their following outing and there's good reasons why.

 

Horse's strike rate

Many horses running around, especially at this time of the year, don't have high win strike rates. These statistics are indicative of the horse's recovery rates, racing patterns and quality as a race horse. If a runner is a last start winner, has a low win strike-rate and presents as the favourite in a race, there is a definite red flag surrounding its chances of repeating the historically rare event of another win.

Peak run over

Many trainers target certain races within a horse's preparation. The runs before the targeted race are usually part of a racing plan to work them towards peak fitness, and the races following the big race are often like post-Grand Final events, when they have passed their peak. Each horse is different so this isn't a hard and fast rule, however punters should take note of racing patterns for runners exceeding about five or six runs since their last spell. A favourite runner may have had a good preparation but its recent runs may be nowhere near the peak run that the horse is being rated against to drive it's price in the market.

Different racing conditions

Last start winners rarely experience identitical racing conditions at their next run. In fact a last start win will normally result in a weight increase and a race upgrade at it's next outing. Other factors may change too. The course, distance and track condition are just some of the factors that may differ in the following run and can be underestimated by the market.

Hype over reason

Don't ever underestimate the power of the media to impact the odds of a horse. A strong win or an unlucky run from a horse's last start often drives ongoing replays that underline the runner's untapped potential for it's next run. These same remarks appear on form guide summaries which drive many punters towards a similar view that this race is the one where it will get the prize. While the thinking may be sound, the publicity can carry more than it's fair share of punters with it, driving it's odds lower. As price movements are now more easy to identify via Bookmaker race betting pages or other price fluctuation tools, betting swings of this nature take a life on of their own, driving the odds lower and lower.

In addition to good or unlucky last start runs, horses in big stables tend to get more publicity than those in less known ones. Then there are other media events like horses arriving from overseas that draw more attention to the punters.

 

Speed Maps overlooked

Speed maps are different in every race so needless to say they need to be assessed each time a horse runs. A backmarker who achieves favouritism should come under close scrutiny from punters. For starters backmarkers inherently have the odds stacked against them each time they race. They need to come from the back of the field which means punters are betting that they will receive a good path to the line and that the going in those parts of the track where it runs are not at a disadvantage.

Statistics show that there is a bias towards backing horses with inside barriers, where it seems a significant number of punters are using a quick rule of thumb rather than considering other key factors involved in the speed map. An inside barrier can be the worst draw for a favoured backmarker that doesn't possess early speed as they are likely to drift back to the rear and find themselves caught on the rail looking for a lucky split in the straight.

A horse which rates well on previous runs but has a disadvantage in the speed maps is a strong indicator of a false favourite.

 

Jockeys

One of the most overlooked factors in racing and also when considering false favourites is the jockey. Like any sports person, jockeys have strengths and weaknesses and circumstances where they perform best. One of those factors that punters need to consider is how the jockey performs at certain tracks compared to others. Jockey strike rates differ from racecourse to racecourse which can impact a favourite's chance of winning next time around if it runs at a different track.

A change in jockey is another factor that can be underestimated, especially if the new rider is not as capable or in-form compared to the one that rode the horse to achieve it's strong recent form.

 

There are different ways that punters can capitalise on false favourites once they have identified them. The most obvious is to lay it using a bet type like Favourite versus Field. Punters can also use false favourite information to look for overs from other runners in the race and capitalise on that value by taking multiple runners in a race using an effective multi-bet calculator.

If you have identified other ways to identify false favourites, post them on our Facebook page and if we use them we'll reward you for your efforts to the value of $50.

Mike Steward