Defying the odds

One of Australia's top racing journalists showed punters just how far quality racing information can go last month. Clinton Payne, senior journalist with racing site Racenet, topped the profit makers list over the 31 day period, out performing Australia's racing media elite, professional punters and other racing fans who record their bets and tips at theGreatTipOff.com. Payne's 17 best bets in March delivered punters a massive 256% profit on turnover (POT), topping off an enviable 12 month run where his followers made a 38% profit windfall from his 113 selections published over the 365 days.

Speaking to Payne this week we learned that his success in racing goes beyond long hours and hard work, but rather stems from his deep rooted life-long quest to defy the odds.

Defying the Odds

With a life-long dream to become a sports journalist, Clint heard the calls to study hard as a teenager and work towards a degree to make his dream become a reality. Without a passion for academia however he couldn't wait to give the books away and get out into workforce. While still holding onto his dream tightly, Payne found himself miles from the pack with only a burning desire for racing to guide him through his quest. With the odds stacked against him, he managed to etch a path towards his career goal. Starting as a racing journalist with Racenet 15 years ago, he has since become one of the most respected voices in Australian thoroughbred racing.

Payne's approach towards form is much the same as his quest to become a racing journalist - challenging the odds to finish-up in front.

 

360 degrees analysis

Like many professional form analysts, Payne aims to find value when he assesses a race. He knows that if he keeps finding horses that are over the odds, the laws of probability have to put him in front. While it's a commendable goal to have, the effort to achieve it is nothing short of an analytical marathon. The Racenet form specialist spends up to eight hours per meeting working through multiple layers of analysis to eventually arrive at his preferred selections.

If not doing the form he's into research, watching live Sydney metropolitan and NSW provincial races, in addition to barrier trials across the state, either on track or in front of a screen.

Payne's approach towards race assessment is very detailed and includes multiple steps to eventually arrive at his selections.

 

Step 1 Raw set of ratings

• produces a rating for each runner in every race using his preferred ratings algorithm

Step 2 Assess race factors

• produces speed maps, placing a strong emphasis on pace in the race to determine where the favours and risks are likely to be;
• notes and assesses gear changes; and
• predicts track conditions using current track ratings and weather predictions to determine how the track will play on race day.

Step 3 Adjust ratings - initial raw ratings are now adjusted to consider assessed favours or challenges identified in Step 2.

Step 4 Video insights - then reviews video footage to identify runs which provide additional insights into a horse's chances - this is where he can gain a significant edge over the market. The senior racing journalist pays particular attention to the form patterns that horses tend to develop over their career and looks to confirm that these historical form patterns are playing out again.

It’s amazing how many horses produce very similar results from one prep to another. Payne told us

He rates each run and maintains a history of the peaks and troughs for every preparation for every horse in scope. One of the biggest opportunities that form pattern analysis provides is where horse's experience peaks that follow troughs in their campaigns.

An example of that could be a horse that produces X rating first-up, then drops a couple of points second-up before producing a preparation high spike third-up. That sort of profile will normally give you value - Clinton Payne.

Step 5 Produce selections - final selections are produced and published

 

Home Ground Advantage

Payne's comprehensive approach to form analysis creates significant workload, which demands a high degree of discipline and focuss to ensure sufficient time is allocated and corners are never cut. To achieve this end Payne keeps his analysis focussed on Sydney and expands that scope to provincial and country tracks only when required. With two to three metropolitan meetings in Sydney each week, the Racenet form expert is spending up to three days on form work each week, and about the same time attending race meetings.

On race day you will find Clint in the media room talking to trainers, jockeys and connections to get the low down on each runner's performance. Payne's detailed race day notes feed into the mountain of racing articles that he produces for Racenet and his form database which he uses in the later stages of his form assessment process.

 

Words Of Wisdom

Payne's quest to find value doesn't always lie in the most conventional areas. He says the more you do form, the more you learn traits of horses, but you also learn them about trainers and jockeys. This knowledge becomes a tool that you can use to find value in markets. Rather than reciting a quick rule-of-thumb for punters to follow, the Racenet form guru suggests turning some much cited quick ways-to-win on their head. An example of this is - rather than using the market popularity of Chris Waller's runners early in their preparations, in some instances you can use this as an opportunity for value by betting around them.

Chris Waller-trained horses are I’d say 95 percent of the time ridden negatively if they draw wide early in a campaign. He’s not the sort of trainer that want’s to undo all the hard work early in a prep so I tend to bet around those sort of horses as its rare his runners are not in the market early in their campaigns.

Another example where value can be found, cited by Payne.

I love finding horses with strong form credentials trained by an unfashionable trainer/jockey combo as they sometimes throw up huge value - Jungle Edge winning at Rosehill on BMW day was a great example of that landing $11 in first markets.

Read more about Clinton Payne and keep up to date with his stories at Racenet here.

Author: Damian Deguara