Caulfield Tips for the Futurity Stakes 2024

The Futurity Stakes is one of three Group 1 races that punters will be keen to sink their teeth into on Saturday.

Normally a headline act on the day, which includes a role call of Alligator Blood, Black Heart Bart, and Probabeel, this year's edition is a tad lackluster as many connections decided to opt out once Mr Brightside got nominated.

With a mortgage on the race it is hard to tip against the champion, but at the price there are no prizes for finding him.

John Steinmetz has looked wide and found some value amongst the remaining runners.

 

 

Track Conditions 

The track was assessed on the morning of the 23rd and it is currently rated a Soft 5.

You can expect to see a good track on Saturday, weather permitting.

 

The Speed Map

With Pride of Jenni not lining up for this race, Buffalo River (6) will jump hard and fast to lead comfortably from Nugget (5) and Pericles (2).

Mr Brightside (1) will slot in behind those from the soft draw.

Attrition (7), Dom to Shoot (4), Munhamek (3) and Hey Fat Cat (8) will try to take the front runners down once they hit the straight.

 

The Favourite 

The market speaks for itself and looking at Mr Brightside's form it's easy to see why.

With over $11 million in prize money, five Group 1 wins, three Group 2s and a career strike rate of 50%, it's hard not to go with him.

But as many know, punting is price driven and there is so much more value than the $1.50 that is currently being served up by the bookies for the favourite.

While I believe that Mr Brightside will win, I think there are a couple of better bets to be made.

 

 

Tips

Mr Brightside ($1.50) has consistently delivered in big races.

With his record as favourite being 17:13-2-1 its hard to see him not running a great race.

However if he gets caught too far back, the leader-favoured Caulfield track could give him some issues.

 

Buffalo River ($13.00) was recently invited to the All-Star Mile and deserves it off a strong last start performance.

With a soft map and easy lead, I think the $2.60 for him to place is a steal.

Throw in his 55% career place strike rate, and it becomes a very enticing bet.

With Celine Gaudry retaining the ride, he looks well placed for a big effort.

 

Attrition is coming off a 19-week spell and a Group 1 win.

Although the price is right sitting at about $9/$2.05, I think he is one of the strongest competitors in the race.

With a decent fresh record, Mitch Freedman will have him primed and the stallion also has age on his side.

 

Nugget is the Great Britain import representing Australian Bloodstock.

Ciaron Maher had great success with him originally but is now struggling to get results, with his last win now some 60 weeks ago.

However, a strong fourth in the King Charles III Stakes tells me he will be better up fresh this time around.

 

Recommended Bets

1. Mr Brightside 
2. Buffalo River 
3. Attrition 
4. Nugget 

 

Box Quinella – 100% = $6

Box Trifecta – 100% = $24

Box First Four – 100% = $24

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.