Caulfield Tips for Oakleigh Plate 2024

The charge of the light brigade, better known as the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate over 1100m, is as open as ever.

Only three runners in a field of 15 currently sit under $10.00 in early betting.

That said, there'll be all sorts of momentum-driven twists and turns before the starter lets them go on a likely Good 4 surface, with the rail out a tricky 4m.

Naturally, being the penultimate affair run at high class speed; the pattern will be huge, but all being equal top notch mare Asfoora ($6.00) is ready to pounce second-up, and take her strike rate from 17 starts to better than 50 percent.

A dual group winner at the track last spring, she was all the buzz in betting when returning in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes over the same trip.

Despite doing some work early, Asfoora loomed to win past the furlong, but was gunned down late by fast-finishing Kallos.

Stepping to Group 1 company, she may seem a touch vulnerable, but don't believe it.

With that run under her belt, she can find another length or two, and I prefer her drawn further out avoiding some of that early tight pressure before cruising across to stalk the speed.

 

 

Of course, it wouldn't be an Oakleigh Plate without all sorts of threats, especially if the tactical firestorm for positions goes its normal way.

Mornington mare Benedetta ($7.50) hasn't started since hitting the line in the Silver Eagle (1300m) at Randwick, and we know she can be brilliant fresh.

Back down to 53kg from gate five, she's a serious chance, and don't understate emerging five-year-old Mornington Glory ($24.00) who keeps improving, and is way over the odds.

I'm loath to bore into ultra talented Randwick colt King's Gambit ($4.50), first-up for 18 weeks and likely getting back from the inside draw, with traffic galore all around. 

 

See who the All-In boys like in the Oakleigh Plate

 

Flemington Race 9 - Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m)

Track Conditions

A few light showers in the lead-up should not be enough to push the rating any lower than Good 4.

With the rail out to some degree, I expect those in the first third of the field to dominate.

 

The Speed Map

Recommendation ($15.00) who is hard fit will zip forward, along with last start BM94 Randwick winner Brudenell ($24.00); and Hypothetical ($13.00) who was right behind the placegetters in the Rubiton.

Asfoora slides across from a wide draw to park just off the speed and away from the inside, along with underrated Sghirippa ($10.00) who also works over from wide out.

 

 

The Favourite

For the reasons mentioned, I am very content to oppose King's Gambit fresh at the price.

Yes, he has a giant motor, and all being equal is probably the most exciting galloper.

However wedged away inside runners off speed surely isn't his go around this track, even though he's matured since those early and wayward days.

 

Neil's Best Bet

Despite that first-up defeat, Asfoora looms as the value in what is not quite a top shelf renewal.

Like Bill Collins once said about Kingston Town the very next run after a rare defeat "we are gonna see the real one today"

 

The Dangers

Benedetta is very smart when fresh, and as long as she sees clear air from the 450m, look out for a booming final sectional; while Mornington Glory is clear over the odds

 

Neil's Top Four

1. ASFOORA
2. Benedetta
3. Mornington Glory
4. King's Gambit

 

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