Betting To Win: the Truth about Horse Racing Favourites

There's an age-old mantra that casual punters often return to: favourites are the safest bet.

And while this may ring true in terms of winning percentages, return on investment should be every bettor's key indicator of success.

But 'they' don't want to hear this logic... You see them down at your local pub and club every weekend, cheering loudly as their 'hype horses' scorch around the track.

After a winner or two, they are on top of the world and untouchable.

Yet as the afternoon rolls on their profits dwindle away, before leaving with their tail between their legs.

 

The stats show that the vast majority of favourites turn out to be false, with only about three in ten claiming victory.

Turning this into a simple maths equation, said punters would need 3 winners from every 10 bets at odds of $3.33 just to break even.

So should punters ditch favourites altogether?

 

Don't get the wrong idea, favourites are priced up by the bookmakers as the key winning chance in the event.

They have access to the world's best data points and their market assessment is based on valid reasoning.

These odds however drop early in the week and forecasting several factors ahead of time can turn out to be false.

 

The trick to any horse race is discerning the frontrunners from the pretenders.

The path to profitability doesn't lie in blind allegiances to a favourite horse but in scrutiny and a strategic approach.

This isn't an easy task and could answer why punters are happy to trust the original odds given by the market.

The benefits however are game-changing if punters are successful in disecting the market.

 

If you could eliminate the vast majority of the false favourites you would reduce your losing bets.

If we accept that 40 per cent of favourites are 'false' and could find them before the race, we would then be in a position of striking 3 winners from every 6 bets.

In such circumstances, a flat bet on every favourite and assuming an average price of $3.33 would see you outlaying 6 units for a return of 9.9 units, a profit of 3.9 units.

 

So how can we get a leg up over the bookie?

It doesn't need to take hours but a brief assessment on race day of the conditions and the following form factors are often more than enough.

 

Blueprint to Enhance Your Betting Strategy

 

So for the casual racing fan, here is your simple blueprint to spot false favorites and make smarter betting decisions:

Track History:

Acknowledge that your horse has handled the track it is racing at.

As an example, many favourites go under at Moonee Valley due to it's unique shape and racing pattern.

A blistering win from last at Flemington down the long straight doesn't equate to a similar performance at Moonee Valley.

The form of many horses reveals their best tracks.

Surface Condition:

Each horse has its preferred track conditions.

This is one specific area where the bookmaker's odds can often fall flat, due to weather and the environment.

A shift in ground condition can change a whole market and identifying a horse's comfort zone in specific going can be pivotal in predicting the outcome.

 

Distance Compatibility:

Success over one distance doesn't guarantee the same over another.

Evaluate if the favourite is suited for the race's distance.

A horse's proficiency in varying distances can significantly influence its performance and chances of success.

As a rule of thumb, if a horse rises beyond 200m extra than its last start effort and has not tackled the distance before, it is best to ignore.

 

Barrier Draw:

Statistics highlight the significance of inside barriers, especially on tracks with turns.

Consider the barrier draw when assessing a favourite's chances, as it can influence the horse's race strategy.

A favourable barrier can enhance a horse's prospects.

 

Recent Form:

Prioritise favourites with a proven track record rather than those hyped due to good trackwork or sensational headlines.

Assess a horse's recent form meticulously.

Consistent performance is a more reliable indicator of potential success.

Class rise and drop:

While ascending from one class to another can signal an improving horse, exercise caution when favourites transition to a higher class.

Ensure the horse has proven form at that level before backing them in a new class.

Also, assess a horse's ability to adapt to difference classes.

A plan drawn up along these lines would mean you would only be backing strong favourites.

Following this blueprint is likely to see you backing stronger favourites. While the blueprint outlined here is only a small piece of the scope considered by professional punters, it offers the many 'time poor' punters a significant boost towards profitability