Betting Tips: Early Market Movers at Randwick and Caulfield 6/4/24

On a huge Day 1 of the Championships, pro punters have analysed the early market prices to identify runners with a winning chance who have been mispriced by bookmakers.

At Caulfield a moderate meeting has also attracted early shoppers, with a Team Hayes runner likely to have been primed by the yard to win second-up.

Whilst at this week’s major venue Randwick, the shrewd John O’Shea yard look to have a very smart 2yo, who they have backed heavily.

 

 

Caulfield Tips

 

Immortal Star

Highly rated 2yo filly who does have last start form around the smart Bold Bastille, when running second last time out.

There is no Bold Bastille here in what appears to be a much weaker race and she should be much better suited form a class perspective.

From gate 4 they will receive an ideal run throughout, plus get a nice tow into it just behind the leading pair.

 

Simeon

Was very good on the new Caulfield Heath inner circuit last start, where he led and fought hard all the way to the line when only narrowly beaten (0.4 Lengths) into third placing.

Dropping back to 1400m here looks ideal and he can run them along in this, before ramping up the speed even more from a long way out.

He should be much fitter coming out of the tough on-speed run last start and could improve again here.

 

Here To Shock

Gun camp who know how to land a plunge.

It appears they gave him a “sighter” run first up at Echuca when he drifted in the market ($2.70 out to $4.00) before being ridden midfield and wide.

They are likely to have known he was underdone first-up and would have poured the work in since at home.

Look for more intent to be shown here now at Group level with the higher prizemoney on offer, and he should figure in the finish this time.

 

Fridgid

Highly talented mare for a high-profile owner, who would be applying some pressure to the yard after some lean recent results.

She was electric last prep following a few lead in runs, and looks to have a sense of timing here being second-up (3:2-1-0).

The owner isn’t afraid to sack a trainer hence the motivation from Leak Jnr to achieve a win for Bob Peters here will be significant.

 

Randwick Tips

 

Roselyn’s Star

Is from the John O’Shea yard who sent this gun 2yo for a soft kill mid-week on the Kensington track last start.

The form out of her last start effort is ultra strong where she gapped them and yet 2 horses behind her on that day have since won.

She looks well above average and being lightly raced has more upside this preparation than some of these.

 

Stockman

Loves a bottomless wet track and it appears he will be very suited in this regard at Randwick, with plenty of rain forecast.

Older now, he also looks well suited by the step up to 2600m which will allow him plenty of time to wind up down the long Randwick straight.

He simply swims and could be a complete moral if the rain continues.

 

Militarize

Has promised the world this preparation however on occasion clearly hasn’t been suited with genuine excuses last start when hampered.

The ownership group are desperate for a Group 1 win in his 3yo year to secure the higher stud value, hence no doubt he will be primed.

This is a deep Doncaster however the weight relief should count for plenty and given an economical run throughout, he could be the strongest late.

 

Riff Rocket

Rising Waller star who has an electrifying finishing burst over ground on his day.

He was excellent wining the Rosehill Guineas last start, when taking a sit off a slow tempo and rattling home over the top.

At this stage of the prep the stable tends to ride a touch close in the run, and I expect J Mac will have him in an ideal position midfield with cover on this occasion.

 

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