Barriers and betting on horses

Barriers are one of the most considered pieces of data used by punters when making betting decisions. Conventional wisdom once said "the smaller the barrier number, the better a horse's chances of winning the race" however thinking has progressed some way beyond that rule-of-thumb these days. Successful form experts in Australia know better and understand the science of punting is much more sophisticated than a "one-size-fits-all" approach.

Barrier Statistics

Barrier statistics over the past eight years do show a general winning trend towards inside barriers over shorter distances. But what we also see in these statistics is how that trend is effected by characteristics of different tracks.

The best way to highlight this point is comparing the 1200m at Moonee Valley to the same distance at Caulfield. At the Valley, runners have a short back straight leading into the first turn, followed by a short side straight and finishing with a dash to the post. Barrier statistics over the past eight years show a clear winning trend for the first five barriers.

 

 

Unlike the Valley, the Caulfield 1200m gives runners a much more even chance with 750m to run before the first and only turn into the straight. It's one of the longest straight runs from the jump over a short course in the country. These characteristics suggest there is little-to-no benefit given to inside barriers, and statistics over the past eight-years support it strongly with no clear trend favouring inside gates.

Key Messages for Punters

• Inside gates provide clear advantages to runners over certain courses. Typically shorter distances where there are small runs to the first turn which amplify this bias.
• For short to mid-distances, longer runs from the jump and fewer turns on the course tend to reduce the bias towards inside barriers.

 

Track traits and barriers

The peculiarities of a track is another factor to consider when assessing the impact or advantage that a barrier will give to a horse. On tracks like Rosehill where there tends to be leader bias more often than not, the inside barriers can provide a distinct advantage for a runner. But inside barriers are not the sweet spot for all courses and in some cases provide a distinct disadvantage. Over the 2040m course at Moonee Valley, the distance run for the Cox Plate, statistics show a clear winning trend towards barriers 7 to 9. In fact, barrier 7 is the most successful barrier over the entire history of the Cox Plate. Expert punters would point towards the camber effect to explain this. These barriers allow jockeys to more easily get the right sit in the running, allowing them to fan in the straight and line themselves up for that famous tilt to victory. Depending on where the rail is, some form experts I have spoken to have this 'sweet spot' extending as far out as barrier 11.

The very inside barriers at Caulfield, say 1 and 2, have some of the worst performing statistics for inside barriers over certain distances. I believe this relates to the lack of fanning that occurs on the turn for home at Caulfield, limiting the gaps that open-up for runners caught behind the leading bunch in the run for home. If a horse in an inside barrier doesn't jump, they are destined to take an inside sit and their chance of a split is extremely low.

Key Messages for Punters

• Understand the traits of the tracks where you bet.
• Understand the implications of the track traits for various barrier positions.

 

Speed and racing pattern

One of the most obvious factors which punters consider along side barriers is speed - speed from the jump, their pace in the race and ultimately where that places them in the running. Early speed and inside barriers are usually strong points in a runner's favour, while wide barriers for runners with early speed can result in wasted energy early in the race as they compete for a forward position.

Speed also paints a picture about race tempo. Tempo and barrier positions together can have a real impact on a horse's chances in a race. For example, a wide barrier for a runner with no early speed is at more of a disadvantage in races with a slower tempo. Easing the runner to the back of the field can rule-out any chance of making an impact at the concluding stages of the race in these circumstances.

Key Messages for Punters

• Early speed and barrier positions are important factors to look at together when assessing a runners chances.
• Race tempo and barrier positions are also important to consider together when assessing a race.

 

Ultimately there are other factors that need to be considered. Jockeys are usually aware of all these factors discussed and are setting their own plans to counteract them to win. Each jockey's ability and race plans can reduce the impact of a bad barrier in the circumstances, or less aggressive riders may not exploit an obvious advantage for a runner.

Successful punters combine all of these factors together when accessing a race. Raw barrier statistics in isolation can be misleading and without combining all the relevant data and factors, the punter doesn't have the complete picture in a race.

As always we welcome your comments and thoughts. Send your feedback to [email protected].

Mike Steward.