Ascot Tips and best bets for The Winterbottom Stakes 2023

It's long been a good horse's sprint.

Certainly since Takeover Target edged out Apache Cat in that wonderful match race 15 years ago, but Saturday's Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) at Ascot is more intriguing and testing.

Throw in a late spring carnival pattern in WA, it might also be won by a sprinter well out in the market.

 

Early favourite and this year's Quokka winner, Overpass from the Bjorn Baker stable at Warwick Farm, is entitled to jump at the top of the betting.

He's nice and fresh having six weeks between runs and comes through much stronger form lines in Sydney.

However, the early $3.00 was simply too short from the draw.

 

The biggest "X" factor in the race is powerhouse five-year-old Triple Missile ($8.00) being drawn the fence.

A month between runs behind two powerful and luckless closing efforts at Flemington, he boasts the biggest final 400m sectional in the race.

I know connections are full of confidence, but for one who settles well off the speed, they will need a chunk of luck and an ice-cold ride from farewelling Damien Oliver to get the cash on this tight and turning track.

 

Overpass will need all that customary tactical speed to off-set the gate and squibs underneath.

Third-up winner Hot Zed ($12.00) and big-finishing three-year-old Ripcord ($6.50) are both right in the mix as well.

 

 

Track Conditions:

The heatwave that engulfed Perth in and around the Railway isn't going anywhere a week later.

we are in for another dry and hard surface. 

 

The Speed Map:

Somewhat surprisingly last Saturday's pattern, despite the heat, favoured those at least two or three off the inside.

In fact in some races even out near the middle.

This time though, the rail is out a hefty 8m, so I'll be surprised if on or near the speed doesn't dominate for much of the meeting.

One-paced seven-year-old Red Can Man ($16.00) will roll forward and so too despised Alice Springs visitor Savatoxl ($51.00).

Throw in long-shot speedster Phanta ($71.00) from a wide barrier, even emerging three-year-old Oscar's Fortune ($9.00) and the Winterbottom should be won from a strong speed.

 

The Favourite:

This isn't an overly deep edition, and under the weight-for-age scale, Overpass is obviously a huge chance, especially remembering he was under four lengths from the winner in The Everest.

The fact he has that feature win here over the same distance in Autumn is a huge plus.

Most visitors don't know where they are if they come off wide and much bigger tracks on the East Coast straight into this.

The only real knock for me on Overpass is the price.

Given he will have company for the lead over the first 250m, around $4.00 is a more comfortable quote!

 

Overpass running at Newcastle in the 2022 Hunter 

 

Neil's Best Bet:

I believe the pressure will come a long way from home and it does set up for something that can explode, just off the speed at double-figure odds.

That horse is Hot Zed, fourth-up from a low draw settling better than midfield.

Evergreen jockey Jason "The Fish" Whiting can ride for a split from the 300m, and take his Colonel Reeves-winning form to the next level.

 

The Dangers:

Naturally, there's plenty, starting with Overpass who you will probably know the fate of after 300m.

If Triple Missile gets any clear air from the turn, he will be the one thundering home best.

 

Neil's Top Four:

1. HOT ZED
2. Triple Missile
3. Overpass
4. Ripcord

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at thegreattipoff.com.