Ascot Tips and best bets for The Railway Stakes 2023

It's always an open affair over the mile, but this Saturday's Group 1 Railway can centre around one well-fancied 6YO with a high-class strike rate.

Throw in at longer odds, a local four-year-old who can take his winning return to a top-class 50% from just 14 starts and you have the race covered.

That said, on the tight turning Ascot circuit, the right run, no savage checks and a big chunk of luck from the half-mile are always appreciated in spades.

 

At the top of the weights, a still lightly raced gelding by Kermadec from the Lindsay Smith yard looms as the one to beat.

The form of Tuvalu this prep is almost irresistible on what is only a fair renewal of the Railway.

He's drawn to roll forward into a very tidy spot on or right behind the speed, which will give him every chance in the straight.

He brings elite form-lines including a Group 1 effort when only 1L off Alligator Blood at Caulfield and a placing at The Valley when carrying 1kg more.

With Jamie Kah making the trip across the Nullabor, Tuvalu looks supremely weighted under 58kg in a race without much speed, and the early $4.80 was plenty for me.

 

 

Punters, though, should keep a very close watch on home track four-year-old Bustler ($11.00) who can peak third-up over an ideal trip from a low draw.

The son of Group 1 winner Playing God has hit the line well in two runs back over 1400m, and he's unbeaten third-up from two runs.

 

Around those two, Alsephina ($4.60) should have won here last Saturday when badly held up and checked before charging home late.

She must be a serious chance dropping a hefty 6kg for this.

 

Talented five-year-old Sydney mare and last start winner Roots ($4.80) is perhaps the best horse in the race, but anyone taking under $5.50 around this circuit from a wide draw is braver than me.

 

Horse Racing Tips for Railway Stakes 2023

 

Track Conditions:

Naturally, in the midst of a hot and dry season, the track will be firm and probably hit a Good 3.

 

The Speed Map:

Given the rail is out 6m and the track will be hard, it's hard to see anything winning from well off the speed, unless something really breaks the field open before the half mile.

The better fancies are drawn in and can dictate for much of the way, so any bid to win from well back will have to get rolling by the 650m.

Expect Marocchino ($26.00) to rush across from a wider barrier and find the front, while Comfort Me ($28.00) and from very wide-out long shot Massimo ($66.00) will both likely roll forward.

 

The Favourite:

As I've already outlined, I'll be surprised if Tuvalu doesn't force his way into clear favouritism, but the early market had edged the way of Alsephina.

She draws to stay off the fence, but likely settles around midfield at best.

Traffic problems could emerge quickly from the 650m, although a hoop called Pike is doing the steering.

 

Neil's Best Bet:

Very confident Tuvalu can get the job done.

It's a lovely assignment whichever direction you are coming from, and he rarely runs a bad one.

 

Tuvalu prior to winning the Toorak Handicap at Caulfield

 

The Dangers:

Have to leave Alsephina in there as a big threat hitting a distance and prep peak on the quick back-up, but keep a close watch on Bustler who is well over the odds from that soft draw.

Both Karli's Karma ($13.00) and Dom To Shoot ($21.00) are sneaky knock-out chances.

 

Neil's Top Four:

1. TUVALU
2. Bustler
3. Alsephina
4. Karli's Karma