Ascot Tips and best bets for The Northerly Stakes 2023

There's one thing not in dispute ahead of Saturday's feature Group 1 Northerly Stakes over 1800m at Ascot.

The presence of Sydney raider and multiple Group 1 powerhouse Zaaki, quoted around $2.60 in early markets, ensures there are several runners in the field comfortably over the odds.

 

Under the race conditions and on a smaller turning track, yes the weights are in the nine-year-old's favour.

But a month between runs, and his third state campaign in only five runs, suggests he's under the odds.

 

Not so, still progressing four-year-old and brilliant third-up Group 1 Railway (1600m) winner Bustler who looks sensational value at around $11.00 in early betting.

Yes, he climbs 5.5kg in weight, but by Playing God he's bursting for the extra furlong and importantly is drawn to find cover around midfield.

I'm confident enough this gelding, with a pedigree to get much further, can carry the weight.

He just needs a solid clip to follow from the 1000m.

 

You can also mount a similar argument for Railway runner-up Alsephina ($7.00) who is also primed fourth-up.

She has that necessary change of gear from the 500m to the 200m split that most don't have.

 

At bigger odds, the fast-finishing third of Dom To Shoot in the Railway was a beauty, and reminder of what sort of closing sectionals he can produce.

However, in a more tactical race with less speed on and drawn inside where he'll be cluttered away in traffic, the odds are still against him.

 

For me, it's the Railway form v Zaaki, and I'm with the former!

 

 

Northerly Stakes 2023 Group 1 Feature Preview

 

Track Conditions

The rail is out 2m on another firm track rated Good 4 or even harder.

The pattern across the carnival has been a few "lanes" off the fence from the 250m and I can't see any reason why this would change.

 

The Speed Map

Naturally, big Zaaki will roll forward and probably lead, but there's likely potential on-speed nuisance value from Zoumon who draws wide, Marrochino jumping from gate three, and WA Guineas winner Zipaway who also comes over from wider out.

 

 

The Favourite

On power and class alone, obviously Zaaki can give a huge sight.

Let's face it he's been mixing it in top-notch spring company, including a close-up effort in the Cox Plate, but leave me out of the price.

 

Neil's Best Bet

It's all about Bustler at the value, fourth-up getting to this trip.

Just pray for clear air from the 350m on a track that as we know can be a luckless nightmare.

 

The Dangers

High-class mare Alsephina, with that terrific 66 percent win rate from 14 starts, is the value threat.

At much bigger odds, though, don't rule out Cranbourne-based Forgot You around $29.00.

An 1800m Listed winner over the Flemington carnival, his run in the Railway from a mile back was better than it looked.

The extra furlong is also a big plus.

 

Neil's Top Four:

1. BUSTLER
2. Alsephina
3. Zaaki
4. Forgot You

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at thegreattipoff.com.