Ascot Horse Racing Tips for The Quokka 2023
Bella has the moves
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After much anticipation, and recently much drama, late Saturday afternoon sees the inaugural running of the $4 million Quokka at Ascot.
A stellar field has been assembled for the first edition of the race over 1200m.
Western Australia superstar filly ‘Amelia’s Jewel’ is currently the hot favourite to win at $2.80, even despite drawing the outside barrier after a controversial re-draw.
With Western Australia’s best sprinters taking place in the race, they have been joined by some very good racehorses coming across from the East of the country.
They include eight-year-old enigma ‘Kementari’, ‘Overpass’, Group 1 Oakleigh Plate winner ‘Uncommon James’, Group 1 Manikato Stakes winner ‘Bella Nipotina’, ‘Shades Of Rose’ and ‘Asfoora’.
It is set to be a cracking event with many top chances and plenty of interest.
Let’s find the winner of it!
Track Conditions
The surface is currently rated a Good 4 and despite a few millimetres of rain expected to fall overnight on Thursday, dry conditions on Friday and Saturday will keep that rating in check.
The running rail is out 3m, which historically sees the track play fairly with a slight advantage to horses drawn inside to middle barriers.
Race 8 The Quokka (1200m)
The Map
Plenty of the on-pace runners in this race have drawn outside barriers.
Overpass (Barrier 8), Red Can Man (Barrier 11), Asfoora (Barrier 12) and Uncommon James (Barrier 13) are all expected to roll forward and settle in prominent positions.
The Bjorn Baker-trained Shades Of Rose (Barrier 1) will also look to roll forward for Rachel King and land in a good position up towards the pace.
This does give jockey Patrick Carbery a good opportunity aboard the favourite Amelia’s Jewel to follow the on-speed horses drawn on his inside to settle in a forward position and potentially find some cover.
Damien Oliver aboard Kementari (Barrier 2) and Ben Melham aboard Bella Nipotina (Barrier 6) will look to settle in positions just better of midfield.
William Pike will likely take Western Knight (Barrier 10) back in the field to be ridden cold as will Troy Turner aboard Trix Of The Trade (Barrier 4), despite the positive draw.
The Favourite
Besides seeing her race over here in the Eastern States of Australia, this is a moment many racing fans have been waiting for; to see just how good W.A superstar Amelia’s Jewel really is.
Everything suggests she is a top-line racehorse and would compete with the very best the country has to offer and while we don’t see the very elite contesting the $4 million Quokka here, she has some genuine WFA Group 1 sprinters to contest with.
She has only been beaten once in her eight-race-start career, when ‘Laced Up Heels’ ran the race of her career to knock her off in the dying stages at Listed level.
A lot has been made of the controversial re-draw of this race, which resulted in this 3yo filly coming up with barrier 14, but as mentioned in the speed map, it does look as though it will set up for her to potentially get the run of the race.
If she gets that and gets clear air, she looks as though she will be extremely hard to beat.
Free Horse Racing Tips
Despite the relatively strong possibility that the favourite gets the run of the race, she is very short considering she will need a touch of luck and as such, am happy to shop around her in this.
While she would have preferred for more rain to fall, Bella Nipotina is the bet to have here.
She was enormous last start when running on from the rear to flash home into 2nd (against the on-pace bias) behind ‘Imperatriz’ in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes.
On the other side of a disappointing run in the Newmarket, was an excellent run for 3rd in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes behind ‘Coolangatta’ and eventual T.J Smith Stakes winner ‘I Wish I Win’.
She has drawn perfectly here in barrier 6 with Ben Melham travelling over to ride and unlike the favourite, she won’t be needing much luck.
As mentioned previously, if she gets the right run from the wide barrier, she will prove extremely hard to beat here Amelia’s Jewel.
With the drying track and her winning record, she represents a good confident bet for favourite backers.
She has all the makings of becoming a bonified superstar and will certainly get herself amongst the Everest discussion if she secures a victory here against this field.
Uncommon James certainly can’t be forgotten about and has been a surprising early drifter in the market.
Already a Group 1 Oakleigh Plate winner and a Group 1 Galaxy runner-up, the Queenslander comes over to Western Australia with strong winning claims also.
Similarly to the favourite, this 4yo Cable Bay Gelding has yet to run a poor race I’m his nine-start career.
He is undefeated at 1200m, gets regular jockey Ben Thompson over for the ride (4 wins from 4 rides) and certainly will be featuring in the finish with even luck.
Trix Of The Trade has flown under the radar here and certainly looks the value bet to be had in this.
He flies fresh (undefeated first-up) and also has a very solid winning record across his 15-start career with 9 wins from those.
Performs well at this distance and while this is certainly his toughest test to date, can see him running home late through the middle of the pack.
1st Bella Nipotina
2nd Amelia’s Jewel
3rd Uncommon James
4th Trix Of The Trade
Head to our horse racing tip market to access the selections of proving winning form analysts.
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