Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 1/3/25

This week, we are taking on two popular runners at Randwick who both appear poison-priced and represent excellent risks.

Midway through the card, a mare once touted as the horse of a generation still seems to be priced based on past heroics rather than current form.

Later in the day, a gun Group 1 mare is all the rage in a race where her price appears severely over-bet and too short relative to several key rivals.

  

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Randwick Race 6 #1 Amelia’s Jewel $2.40

She is still being priced on the hype of past successful campaigns, but based on her recent form those glory days feel long gone.

Forced to carry top weight (57kg) here, she concedes an advantage to several key rivals.

The 1400m start at Randwick is not ideal for a wide draw and from gate 8, she is likely to be ridden cold.

This will forfeit any chance of securing a prime position while also risking being caught wide.

While this is a weaker field than what she has faced in the past, she still appears severely over-bet and offers no value at the current price.

Avoid.

 

 

Randwick Race 8 #8 Via Sistina $1.80

Simply have to be against her at this price!

In a hot field, the market has created too big a gap between her and several key opponents.

She ran well first-up in the Apollo Stakes (3rd of 8) where she had genuine excuses when held up, but even factoring that in she still looked beatable moving forward.

There is a theory that her highly publicised Moonee Valley track gallop incident (where she dumped J Mac) sharpened her up for the Cox Plate win.

Now with that residual benefit gone, she may have reverted to her standard form which could bring her right back to the field.

No doubt she is a high-quality mare, but the price is pure poison making her a great risk in this Randwick Group 1.

Lay.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.