Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 29/8/26

This week we are focusing on two popular favourites at Caulfield who both appear severely over bet, with their current prices heavily influenced by the hype surrounding their prior heroics.

Midway through the card, an unbeaten galloper who went four from four last preparation returns and is almost certain to attract plenty of mug money based on that record alone.

Whilst later in the day, an expensive import has generated enormous hype from the stable and connections, however now faces a setup where there should be far fewer excuses if he fails to deliver.

 

 

James Beeson's Lays of the Day 29/8/26

Caulfield Race 6 #3 Oliveanotherday $2.40

High quality horse who looks vulnerable here first up against several rivals that have raced throughout the Winter and should hold a significant fitness advantage.

He is likely being prepared for a long Spring campaign with this merely the starting point, and I doubt the stable will have him fully screwed down this early in the preparation.

There should be a much bigger Grand Final target earmarked for later in the campaign and they are unlikely to completely gas him first up when there is still plenty of improvement to come.

Granted, his unbeaten preparation last time in was impressive, winning four from four, however that record is exactly what will sucker in the mug punters and ensure his price remains artificially short.

The market is asking punters to take $2.40 about a horse first up against fit opposition when his major targets are almost certainly still ahead of him.

I expect a market drift close to start time where $3 or better could become available.

Avoid.

 

Caulfield Race 9 #10 Yellow Jersey $2.30

The hype surrounding this runner is simply next level and the current price appears to have been heavily influenced by the expectations surrounding this expensive import.

Connections will naturally be hoping they have secured a top class horse, however at some point the performances on the track need to justify the hype.

Over this trip there should be fewer excuses available, particularly compared with previous runs where distance and race setup may have been used to explain away performances.

The tight turning Caulfield circuit also looks a significant concern.

I would have much preferred to see him on a bigger, more spacious track such as Flemington where he would have more time to balance and build through his gears.

Barrier six presents another tactical challenge.

If they decide to press forward, there is enough speed drawn underneath to make him work and potentially leave him posted wide for a significant portion of the race.

With the hype already built into the price and a tricky Caulfield setup to overcome, he represents poor value at the current quote.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.