Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 26/7/25

This week we’ve identified two warm favourites who appear to be high-risk plays at their current prices, with form and race setups that simply don’t justify the market support.

At Caulfield, a talented Troy Corstens-trained galloper returns first-up from a spell but draws an awkward inside gate and looks underdone from a fitness perspective.

Meanwhile at Randwick, a runner trapped by the map faces a tempo and tactical setup that could completely undo her winning chances.

  

 

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday 26/7/25

Caulfield Race 8 #3 Baraqiel $3.10

Talented horse but arrives here first-up and likely short of peak fitness, with key rivals already up and running this prep.

Expect the stable to have longer-range goals in mind, possibly targeting spring features, which suggests this is more of a soft return run rather than a fully wound-up assignment.

Drawing gate 1 around Caulfield is often a trap, especially if they don’t push forward early.

If he finds himself three-back the fence, he risks being cluttered and buried at a key stage of the race.

Combine the fitness query, the tight draw, and the expected early pressure and he profiles as a great lay at the current quote.

Market drift expected.

Avoid.

 

 

Randwick Race 7 #4 Sacred Rocks $2.30

Drawn the outside alley (gate 13) in what shapes as a slowly run race, Sacred Rocks could find herself in an impossible position unless something dramatic unfolds tactically.

Most likely, she’s ridden cold and goes back near last which is a disaster setup at 1300m, especially if the leaders control proceedings up front.

If they try something different and ride her against her usual pattern, she’ll have to work hard early with plenty of rivals kicking up underneath her.

Either way, it’s a lose-lose scenario from a speed map perspective.

Any indication of a leader-biased track only compounds the risk.

She’s a smart filly, but the race shape is all wrong.

I'm expecting $3+ to be available closer to the jump as sharper money fades her.

Lay of the day.

 

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.