Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 15/8/26

This week we have focused on two warm favourites at Caulfield that both come up as excellent risks at their current short quotes in betting.

Midway through the card, a highly regarded Team McEvoy filly appears severely over hyped, with her debut victory at this track coming through a race where the form may prove questionable going forward.

Whilst in the very next race, a WA raider who blew them away here first up looks another classic case of the market overreacting to recent heroics.

 

 

Saturday Lays of the Day 15/8/26

Caulfield Race 6 #5 Natural Fling $2.90

This is a hot race where any number of these talented three year olds can win, hence the current price about Natural Fling appears pure poison.

She has been heavily hyped by the McEvoy yard since her impressive debut victory here, where she won by three lengths.

However, the opposition that day looked moderate and I have serious question marks around how strongly that form will stand up.

The market also appears far too focused on her most recent Gold Coast performance, where she finished behind a smart one in The Next Episode.

That came over the 1000 metre scamper and I am not convinced it provides the strongest guide to her chances in this setup.

Against a field with plenty of quality elsewhere, she simply looks too short at the current quote.

I expect a market drift as we approach start time, with stronger moves likely to come for a number of her rivals.

Odds of $3 or better should be widely available at the jump.

Avoid.

 

Caulfield Race 7 #7 Cosmic Crusader $2.50

Going to pot the WA star here who looks another runner severely over bet following his impressive first up victory at this track in the Bletchingly.

I would expect the stable had him very forward for his Melbourne debut last start, particularly with the pressure to make an immediate impression for high profile owner Bob Peters.

That raises the possibility he produced a peak performance first up and could race flatter on this occasion.

This is another deep Stakes race where there are winning chances right across the field, making $2.50 about the favourite look grossly under the odds.

The market appears to have fallen in love with the last start performance, however he now needs to reproduce it against proven high class opposition.

I would much prefer to be with the established Group 1 performers Evaporate and Private Eye at the bigger prices.

Lay.

 

There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.