18/8/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day 17 August 2019

There was more success for us again last week, after we steered punters clear of two short-priced runners who were stepping up in class. 

Both proved they weren't up to it and that their prices were pure poison. 

This week’s edition of Lays Of The Day features another two runners who have come up well under the odds.

One appears outclassed and faces speed map challenges in a Caulfield feature, whilst the other will be subject of significant mug money support.

Both selections should drift in the market, as pro punters single out the value elsewhere once liquidity builds. 

 

Caulfield Race 7 #9 Begood Toya Mother $3.00

Appears the sucker bet of the day being first-up over the unsuitable 1200m at Caulfield and boasting the long picket fence.

The mugs will pour into the $3.00, however you can expect the pro money to come for runners elsewhere. 

He likes to race on or close-to-speed and from gate 8, the speed map looks ugly given he'll be forced to work hard early or risk being posted wide.

First try in Stakes grade is also a massive concern, with plenty of his opposition experienced at both Group and Listed level.

He is one to avoid at all costs and I expect a significant market drift as we approach start time. Lay.

 

Randwick Kensington Race 7 #6 Wren's Day $2.60

Has plenty against with the wide draw (barrier 10) and unsuitably short distance first-up of 1400m.

No doubt he has the “X factor” as the new international import for Godolphin, however there are far too many questions marks to be diving into the current $2.60.

This appears to be a trial run to see exactly where the horse is at. Both his breeding and form suggests he will be more dynamic over further ground.

James McDonald takes the ride, which is interesting given he is now top pick for Godolphin when Hugh Bowman is unavailable.

However, I believe the rider is looking beyond Saturday with this particular horse, who could be a player in the Spring weight-for-age staying distances.

They won't be out to break any records in this and there's no doubt the mugs will lock onto the import story coupled with the Godolphin/J Mac factor.

He is sure to start well under the odds and I doubt he will be winning at the Australian debut. Lay. 

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