I’m against a Lloyd Williams runner on Saturday at Flemington, who is likely to be over-bet due to his Australian debut heroics and an in-form camp.
Whilst later in the card, another last start winner faces a challenging set up with a big weight on his back.
Expect both runners to be very popular with public money across the country, however it often pays to be against this. Lay.
Flemington Race 6 #8 Degraves $2.70
Gun import who was excellent winning here at his Australian debut for the very shrewd Lloyd Williams camp, however looks to strike a strong field here which will be a much tougher test.
The same camp had a good winner at Sandown on Wednesday and the hype around “Team Williams” horses will reach fever pitch come Saturday.
I’m factoring this in and believe this runner will be over-bet due to the attention.
The first-up run was enormous where he stormed late, however they can often fall flat after their fresh run and find it hard to produce a new peak performance second-up.
He will be getting well back in the field and if there is only a moderate tempo, expect a number of these to be too strong sprinting off the front. Lay.
Flemington Race 8 #3 South Pacific $2.35
Beat up on a weaker field here last start, when carrying a feather weight of 54.5kg. Now lining up against stronger types and asked to carry 59kg, taking the poison price of $2.35 does not appeal to me.
Launching from a wide gate in barrier 15, I suspect they won’t be as close to speed on this occasion and will need to be producing a longer more sustained run. This could set too big a task.
Kah sticks, which almost certainly means the price will be over-bet due to her high-profile and rating in the big model machines.
I’m with the Sydney raider Sweet Thomas here, who brings different form and could be well above these on quality. Avoid the favourite.
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