6/4/19 Randwick tips: TJ Smith Stakes

Distance	1200m
Grade	Group 1
Track Rating	Soft 7
Prizemoney	$2,500,000
Class	WFA
2018 winner	Trapeze Artist ($8)

This year's edition of the TJ Smith Stakes is dripping in quality and punters could make a case for most of the runners engaged. 

It pains me to leave out a number of high class sprinters. 

With the expected warp speed tempo, I have settled on those that exhibit a strong run-on profile.

The on-speed types are highly likely to overdo it up front, and so I am looking for those that have proven ability to come with a big run late over the top.

Expect defending champion Trapeze Artisit to be ridden off-speed on this occasion, due to the high pressure nature of the race.

 

 Race Randwick Track Traits

Randwick is currently rated a Soft 7, with the rail in the True position the entire circuit.

Continuing the trend in Sydney over the past month, showers are predicted in the lead up to the weekend and possibly on Saturday.

With a rain-affected surface, Randwick can play to a particular bias and a close watch of early racing is advised.

Late in the day, it may be an advantage to have drawn out and be positioned to come down the middle to outside sections.

 

 Racing Market Movers

All runners remain steady in early betting.

 

 Key Runners

#1 Redzel $8.50

Is an absolute champion sprinter with little left to prove.

However, he shocked most when well beaten last start, finishing 8 of 12 in the Galaxy at Rosehill. 

Just feel he is on the way down now and won't get to dictate terms up front on this occasion, with Sunlight and Ball Of Muscle both intent on crossing from the deep.

The speed map is against him and I'm happy to bet around. No. 

 

#2  Trapeze Artist $4.20

Blew them all away second-up in the Canterbury Stakes when he led, dictated and gave nothing else a chance in the run to the line.

This is different and with a power of speed drawn wide, he is unlikely to be leading here.

He will find cover midfield in the moving line, before tracking into it around the home turn.

It was a devastating display of speed and stamina last start. There's no reason why he won't repeat that here, on route to defending his 2018 crown. Yes. 

ALL THE WAY FOR TRAPEZE ARTIST - Great ride @blake_shinn to win the Canterbury Stakes @royalrandwick today. pic.twitter.com/4dbL0owqXp

— Sky Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 9, 2019

 

#3 Santa Ana Lane $7

Has impressive wet form (12:3-1-4) and is likely to strike those conditions at Randwick on Saturday, with a current Soft 7 surface and more rain predicted.

The tempo of this race looks strong and he can be ridden back near last, smoking the pipe.

Mark Zahra will watch it all unfold ahead of him and if warp speed develops, he will be flashing home late. Top hope.  

 

#4 Pierata $6

Looks perfectly placed for this following the impressive first-up performance at Rosehill, when he just missed in the Galaxy.

He draws ideally in gate 2 and can sit just in behind the leaders, before darting through late.

Slight concern the big first-up run has taken the edge off, however still very happy to be on him here at $6.

Goes on top.      

 

#7 Osborne Bulls $4.50

Is all class and you could make a case he should have won the Newmarket Handicap at his latest, when he got well back before picking through the traffic to grab second (behind Sunlight)

He is another that will appreciate a hot tempo and can rattle home over the top.

Will unleash hell over the final 200m and go very close. Leading fancy. 

Sunlight wins the Newmarket Handicap! She holds off Osborne Bulls and Brave Smash in a brilliant race. pic.twitter.com/cniZwNxJD9

— 7HorseRacing ?? (@7horseracing) March 9, 2019

 

#9 Shoals $11 

Is already a Group 1 winner here at Randwick, taking out the 2018 edition of the Surround Stakes over 1400m.

With a testing rain-affected surface predicted, this sprint trip is likely to feel more like a 1400m journey and her stoutness could prove vital.

Loves it wet (4:3-0-0) and has a beautiful speed map profile to run on off the genuine tempo. Yes.  

 

#11 Sunlight $8.50

One of the all time great 3yo sprinting fillies we have seen, and Tony McEvoy continues to plunder the riches against the older horses.

She will burn across from the wide gate with Ball Of Muscle, and I suspect that runner to let her take it up to avoid suicide. 

It will all depend on how much pressure is applied and on this occasion, the advantage appears to be with the run-on brigade. No.

  

Of The Others

#5 Vega Magic can put in a big first-up run (8:4-2-0) and David Hayes would not have entered in this if the horse wasn't flying at home.

Crates plenty of interest, where betting will tell us everything late. Watch closely. 

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Pierata

2^nd  Osborne Bulls 

3^rd  Santa Ana Lane

4^th  Trapeze Artist 

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