The excellent run for Lays followers continued last week, with both selections rolled when we identified them as good risks.
This included the “Derby King” Explosive Jack who was rolled at the short quote in the feature Queensland Derby.
This week we have our tail up and are taking on two warm favourites on the big Eagle Farm card.
Both have some question marks, with the speed map and pressure likely to come from elsewhere early. Lay.
Eagle Farm Race 2 #2 Cape Breton $2.60
The white-hot Waller/J Mac factor is sure to be over-played again here and sucker in the lion's share of recreational money. Add in the last start winner factor and he represents a mug punter's paradise.
He has plenty going against him in this, as he goes to the bigger and more testing Eagle Farm track straight after the debut win at Canterbury. It will feel like he’s on a different planet when he line up the barriers for this!
J Mac does not like being dictated to, so you can expect him to press forward. However, the other riders will be well aware of him and will ensure it's no picnic up-front. Expect Craig Williams on Volcanic Rock to hold his position at all costs.
Look for him to travel outside the leader sitting on top of a genuine tempo, and find the last 50m very testing. I expect him to be gassed late. Avoid.
Eagle Farm Race 5 #1 Splintex $2.70
Comes up very skinny odds here at $2.70 in a race stacked with quality elsewhere.
I’m happy to be against him from the low draw (gate 1), where I expect them to be looking for the mid to wide lanes by this stage of the day. He is a big chance to be forced to race in the inferior inside ground.
It would be brain-snap to hunt up and lead, given both The Astrologist and Wisdom of Water looking to charge up and apply pressure from the outside.
This leaves one option- to take the sit. With that comes the prospect of traffic issues and a slow lane.
Kerrin McEvoy on Varda could be the one to box him in throughout, keeping Splintex in a zip-fastener until it’s too late to extricate. Lay.
