15/05/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

The good run continues for Lays followers with both last week's selections beaten as favourites.

That made it 16 successful lays from our last 20 selections and the we are keen to keep rolling. 

This week we have identified two runners that will be extremely well found by the market, considering they have both won at their last start outings.

Often when the market “locks-on” due to key factors, the price is over-bet. 

The below selections are two fine examples of this theory.

 

Flemington Race 3 #1 Sartorial Splendor $2.40

The stats scream yes! A last start victory and a winner at his only start at this track and trip. 

However, these are often indicators to me the horse won’t be starting at the true price and will in fact be over-bet.

Many ratings models have these inputs heavily weighted, and this will almost certainly ensure there is no spoil on offer from a price angle.

This is a good quality handicap with plenty of talent and speed engaged elsewhere (Free Of Debt), where I doubt it will be a complete soda for him up front.

With some pressure applied early, expect one of the stalking division to get home over the top of him late. Lay.  

 

Doomben Race 6 #8 Senor Toba $3.50

I’m confident a few of these can turn the tables on this favourite, in what is a rematch following his last start Randwick win.

He appeared blessed to my eye in that run. The breaks came after he found good cover throughout, before he peeled to the right part of the track for an uninterrupted run home.  

I doubt he will get those favours here around a tighter Doomben circuit, where back-makers are typically not suited.  

Expect some traffic issues to come into play, as he starts his run for home from a long way back.

The Waller/J Mac combination will also ensure he is very well found by both mug and pro money, and the price simply holds no value. Avoid.