Siding with the favourite here in the 3YO fillies BM78 over the mile, but we are still getting great value at the current quote above $4.
She is a very progressive filly who is moving through the grades nicely, highlighted by a dominant maiden win at Ballarat two starts back.
On a Soft 7 over 1400m, she sat on the one-one and had every chance that day. She made use of her great position in the run to hit the front and scoot away inside the last 200m, eased down for a dominant 3.25 length win.
She then went to Geelong last start over 1512m, got back in running and was then caught behind a wall of horses at the top of the straight.
That position is a crucial time for a middle distance horse to begin gaining momentum, and she was unable to do so. Meanwhile, the winner looped the field and kicked clear.
Once Surecan got out, she chased extremely hard through the line to make great ground on the winner and put a space on third and fourth.
Fourth-up now and rock hard fit, the step-up to the mile should really suit. This is the hardest race she has faced to date, but her figures stack up easily to this grade, and she will only carry 55.5kg for her troubles.
The wide barrier is the unknown, whether they elect to roll forward or restrain from barrier 11.
But she clearly handles the wet, and will appreciate the big track of Flemington no matter where she settles.
Flemington Race 4 Tip #4 Hypnos $4.40
I'm excited to see what this talented Kiwi raider can produce here first-up in Australia for the James/Wellwood yard.
This 5YO gelding by Reliable Man has started to furnish into a serious black-type competitor, highlighted by a Group 2 win back in November last year. That was followed with a 4th in the Group 1 Captain Cook over the mile at Trentham.
He has improved in every run since returning this prep, and last start when finally back out to the 2000m he ran a bottler behind Beauden in the Group 3 Canterbury Gold Cup.
They fought it out in a stirring battle down the straight, and he was only beaten under a length there with a huge gap back to third.
The race rated extremely highly and when compared to this race, he looks extremely well placed in this grade with only 55.5kg after the claim.
He has been to Australia once before, having three runs back in 2019 and failing to factor in them. But he is a completely different beast this time around and is out to make amends.
His wet track statistics are huge, with a 50% win strike rate from eight runs in wet going. He is drawn perfectly to get a suck run in barrier three, and clearly the 2000m is his ideal trip at this stage of his prep.
He performs consistently well in Group company back in NZ, and can easily measure up to open handicap level here.
TheGreatTipOff.com (the "site) is not a bookmaking or wagering website. As such the site does not provide bookmaking or wagering services. We are a tipping and information service site. If you choose to take tips or use information on this website, you acknowledge and agree that you will only wager with licensed service providers for your jurisdiction. For help call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Our full Terms and Conditions are listed here.