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01/05/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last start traps

Last week we successfully warned punters about another flop, when Kiku ($2.80) drifted in the market at Randwick before labouring in the run to finish 6 of 8.

Our second selection was scratched.

This week we focus on two runners that are likely to sucker in the mugs, off sound last start wins.

I love taking on these horses who have visually impressed and have hidden “chinks” at their next start.

 

Hawkesbury Race 7 #3 Ellsberg $2.15

Is now rock-bottom odds at $2.15 in the Hawkesbury Guineas, a race with Group status and studded with talent elsewhere.

Last start, he led with ease then racked and stacked them up, before kicking away in the straight.

This was a visually impressive run, however he was entitled to kick hard after the mid-race breather.

The market also loved him that day, which indicates he was fully wound up to win first-up. They can often revert back (rate lower) following a peak performance and I’m expecting that to be the case here.

The mugs will chime in off the back of the “impressive” last start run, but I expect the bigger players to get involved late and a drift to occur.

Don’t be surprised if there's a touch more pressure here early from both Exoboom and Calgary Queen, and it certainly won't be a picnic up front. Lay.

 

Sandown Hillside Race 3 #5 Cordilla $2.15

Cordilla looks to be too well found here following the comfortable last start win at Caulfield.

This field appears to lack a genuine tempo and off a slow to moderate speed here, she will need to be very good to pick them up before running out of track.

Gate 1 can be a horror show in small fields and slowly run races, and I expect them to be travelling near last for most of the trip.

She is another horse that comes off a big last start performance and can be considered a significant risk to replicate that effort. 

I’d much prefer to be with those settling forward off midfield in this race, at the better odds. Avoid.

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Author Biography

James Beeson

James Beeson

James is GTO's resident racing analyst, having had extensive experience in the wagering industry as well as the breeding side of racing.

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