31/10/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

It was business as usual last week, with both Ecumenical ($2.80) and Criaderas ($1.90) falling victim to the false favourite tag.

This week’s edition of Lays of the Day focuses on two short-priced runners that are deep into their preparations and at high risk of going stale.

At Flemington, I’m expecting one that has been up for a very long time to struggle at the 1200m distance and wilt late on his run.

Whilst at Rosehill, a horse that has had a torrid Everest campaign looks ready for the spelling paddock, rather than another “gut buster”.  

 

Flemington Race 3 #9 Octane $2.80

Comes up way under the odds to my eye, in a deep race with plenty of hard head talent engaged.

He is a huge risk at the distance, having still not won at two attempts over the 1200m. If there is any pressure, expect him to paddle late over the final 50m.

He is now deep into this preparation with this being his seventh start this time in, and I suspect that he is very close to being “over the top” and going stale.

I prefer the fresher horses on this occasion and expect him to fold up late. Lay.

 

Rosehill Race 7 #1 Gytrash $3.10

Is attempting to go to the well one too many times here, in a classic example of afterthought behaviour.

He was clearly set for the Everest and the entire training program would have centred around having him peak on that day. He could be “fried” here physically and the wide draw (gate 12) can only exacerbate this.

Granted there are a few backing up from recent racing with him, however an Everest preparation is much longer, specific and arduous than most.

I expect the non-Everest horses to hold an advantage.

The speed map looks ugly and he is almost certainly forced to drag back to near last, where he will need luck in running and need to loop the entire field to win. Hard to do. Avoid.