31/07/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we continued the good run for Lays followers, when both Miss Albania (Caulfield) and Harpo Marx (Rosehill) were rolled at short quotes.

Plenty of mugs piled into the false favourites and they were left with egg on their faces when both failed to run a drum. 

This week we have two more runners that appear excellent risks at their current poison prices.

Both horses are having their first run at Moonee Valley, a factor that can be significant at this unique and tight turning track.

 

Moonee Valley Race 1 #1 Jigsaw $1.90

Hype horse who has his first look at Moonee Valley and could face plenty of pressure early.

The Valley is a tight turning and unique circuit, which can bring even the best horses undone at their first try. This alone is a significant opposing factor and reason to bet against young horses having their first outing at the track. 

This runner will also encounter plenty of pressure early, with I Am War, Lloyds Crown and Direct all looking for early dominance. He’ll have his work cut out holding a position.

A low draw in gate 3 at Moonee Valley is not always ideal, especially over the short course where you can get “spat out the back” if you're not holding your ground through the first 200m.

Expect rider Mark Zahra to be forced to burn early, otherwise risk being cluttered up over the final 400m. Avoid.

 

Moonee Valley Race 5 #1 I’m Thunderstruck $1.95

Is another Moonee Valley debutant, who I expect to come unstuck over the unique circuit at the poison odds.

He was ultra-impressive winning last start at Flemington when coming from well back to wind up late and blow them away.

This is a completely different set up, and he won’t have the luxury of a long Flemington straight to get home over the top.

Granted he will be charging at them late, but any traffic issues and a mis-timed run could easily see him missing out.

No doubt he is very smart however with the potential for speed map issues and a first look at The Valley, I’m happy to oppose. Lay.