30/10/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we struck twice with both Starry Legend ($3.10) and Zeyrek ($2.45) failing at their short quotes.

We are keen to take on two key chances at Rosehill this week, both of which appear to have come up very skinny odds.

In the Rosehill Gold Cup the favourite is at risk of being stale after plenty of recent racing.

Whilst in the sprint feature, a classic “afterthought” mentality is in play with a horse that needs luck due to his race pattern.

 

Rosehill Race 5 #3 Think It Over $2.85

The time is right to take him on now, after a long campaign where he is at high-risk of being over the top now.

He also appeared blessed to my eye last start at Randwick in the Craven Plate. In the small field, he had the perfect tag just in behind and could not have had a better run.

There could also be some pressure early from out wide here and if they opt to race forward, it will take some vigour through the first 200m.

He may be forced a few pairs back and from there, traffic issues can come into play over the concluding stages.

The price looks skinny for a horse that could be stale now. Avoid.

 

Rosehill Race 6 #2 Masked Crusader $3.30

Everyone saw the “flashing light” run in The Everest, hence you’re sure to be taking rock-bottom odds here.

He is a horse that needs the breaks to come, with a dangerous “get back run-on” profile that can often leave punters on the floor.

Expect him to be well back in the run again here and if the leaders get any cheap mid-race sectionals, he may struggle to run them down.

The track bias can also be a threat here and if the fence is on fire and leaders have won earlier in the day, expect him to be drifting in the market.

Happy to take him on due to his racing pattern, and this being an afterthought post the Everest run. Lay.