Randwick Horse Racing Tips for Randwick Guineas 4/2/23

A strong field of 14 line up for the Group 1 Randwick Guineas on Saturday.

Godolphin's Aft Cabin is your favourite and what a Guineas this is set to be.

Plenty of questions remain and punters will be sorting through the form guides to stake their claims to fame by answering if:

• Aft Cabin will bounce back off a last-start failure?
• Will Zou Tiger run out a strong mile? 

Find all those answers and more below. 

 

Track Conditions 

The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 6m the entire circuit. 

At this set-up, on-pace runners may be favoured early in the day as they get the first crack at the A-ground.

However, as the day progresses the track should play fair with race tempo the key to making up ground.

 

Race 8 - G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m)

The Map

This is quite a complicated map, that leaves us with more questions than answers.

Zou Tiger (5) has the early toe to lead them up and could well be our leader.

Communist (8) led them up last start, but he compounded late to finish 4L from the winner, so it's unlikely they'll employ the same tactics out to the mile.

That leaves Hollywood Hero (1) the only other runner who is likely to contest for the lead, while Lindermann (10) has shown early toe in the past and could well roll forward to find an on-pace position.

Osipenko (3) maps a treat and can sit leaders back for a soft run in transit, while Matcha Latte (4) can sit midfield with cover. 

The tactics aboard Aft Cabin (9) from the wide draw will be intruiging.

Do they press forward and roll the dice once again or do they take their medicine and sit beyond midfield?

My money is on J Mac having a crack to find a position in the running line early and of if he can't do that, look to restrain.

The decision from the Waller stable to keep Lindermann (10) in Sydney could well play into the hands of Aft Cabin, given the remainder of the field looks likely to settle beyond midfield.

 

The Favourite

Aft Cabin was forced to do a stack of work over the 1400m last start in what could be seen as a forgive run. 

The concern is that he eyeballed the leader on that occasion and that run could have taken a lot out of him. 

His SP says forgive him. The talk from the stable says he's the best 3YO in the stable and he will come good. But is he worth the risk?

 

History/Key Form-lines

• The Group 2 Hobartville is a key lead-up, with 7 of the 12 runners coming through that race

 

Best Racing Tips

1^st Zou Tiger ran a credible second in the Hoabrtville. His career peak rating of 100.1 came 3rd up last preparation and he looks set for another peak run third up on Saturday. 

There is some concern over his credentials to run out a strong mile, but with a soft map and at the $7 quote, I'm willing to find out. 

 

2^nd Osipenko won the Hobartville by the bob of the head and has 1600m form from last Spring.

He did have a softer run than Zou Tiger last start and at the shorter quote, I've relegated him to the second pick.

 

3^rd Matcha Latte is a big price at $10 and should provide some value to exotics. He's screaming out for the mile, draws a treat and showed he enjoys a dry surface last time out.

He ran a career peak of 96.1 on that occasion and it wouldn't surprise me to see improvement off that.

 

4^th Aft Cabin will be well-backed and is my equal top-rated runner, however at the $2.50 quote, he's not a betting proposition.

He's unproven at the mile, draws poorly and has a few negatives this time around. Willing to risk at the price.

Ratings are courtesy of GTX Horse Racing Software

Head to our horse racing tip market to access the selections of proving winning form analysts.