28/08/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

I'm calling out two over-bet runners at Caulfield this week.

In the opening event, a small field presents a tactical challenge for all riders and the favourite has come up far too short.

The second lay appears to be priced on hype. This runner will be forced to jump up in grade and has her first look at Caulfield, a tricky assignmnt which has brought plenty of good horses unstuck.

Expect both of these horses to drift as we approach the jump.

 

Caulfield Race 1 #3 Tooradin $2.50

There's no doubt he is racing well, however there is enough depth in this race to suggest taking the poison $2.50 on offer is pure madness!

It looks as though the market is carried away with his form-lines around Hosier and Ghodeleine.

He won't have it all his own way out in front, with both Nerve Not Verve and Heir To The Throne also keen to take up the running.

If they are intent on leading, expect him to be forced to burn early and this could see him lose the race in the first 200m.

I can’t see this runner trading any shorter than the current quote, and I’d much prefer to be with the other key riders of Jamie Kah and Craig Williams in this one, at the better prices.

“Sleepy Jye” can miss the boat in these small fields and more tactical affairs. Avoid.

  

Caulfield Race 3 #7 Turrath $2.30

Nothing personal against Jye today! However, I have to oppose another of his rides here, which looks severely over-bet.

I love these set-ups where a runner arrives winning their past two starts and is supposedly “breaking the clock” from a race sectional perspective. This typically means they are very well found and there is minimal value on offer.

Every race has unique race shape, especially when you are having your first try at Caulfield. This means times from previous runs are not as important as some would suggest.

The jump up to Benchmark 90 grade is virgin territory for this mare, and she strikes a good quality field where she will need to peak again.

Plenty against her here, yet the price is compressed due to the clock and back-to-back wins.

She looks a great risk to my eye.