25/09/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

We have our long awaited return to Rosehill this week, however I'm expecting it to be one to forget for the two favourites listed below.

In Race 4, the early speed looks set to be detrimental to the chances of a Chris Waller runner.

Whilst in the Group 2 Shannon Stakes, an ownership group appear to be far too ambitious with their horse and have bitten off more than they can chew.

 

Rosehill Race 4 #3 No Compromise $2.90

Comes up skinny odds here for a horse that has failed in both attempts when stepping up to the Group class level.

Granted he was a touch unlucky in the Newcastle Cup last start, when they opted to race closer to speed. However these tactics won’t be as easy to employ here, with a warp tempo likely.

I suspect their only choice will be to go back and that's not his preferred pattern, demonstrated by the improved run last start when he was ridden further forward.

Although the map appears in his favour, there's a strong chance he'll be “flushed out the back of the surf” and denied clear air as some of the leading division tire.

The Waller factor will ensure the price is compressed, and I expect the professional syndicates to take him on as we approach the jump. Avoid.

 

Rosehill Race 6 #10 Love Tap $3.10

Is forced to take on some Group class hard heads here and whilst he does have bottom weight, he’ll still need to be very good to be beating these.

I feel the ownership group often run their horses above their true grade, due to the need for visibility in the syndication business. And this appears to be the case here.

He is coming out of a weak Benchmark 78 event last start, where he beat nothing of this quality.

Although he is excellent second up (2:2-0-0), I doubt he will handle the class in this and I’m happy to be against. Lay.