24/07/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

Last week we cashed in when warm favourite South Pacific failed to run a place at the $2.15 poison price. Our other Lay selection, Degraves, was scratched.

This week at Caulfield, we are taking a position against a first-up runner who is likely to be carved up, in a brutal speed battle early.

Whilst at Rosehill, a last start winner comes up very short in a race that appears to lack tempo and may favour the leading division.

Avoid both runners at their current quotes.

 

Caulfield Race 4 #6 Miss Albania $2.70

Is very good, however strikes a white-hot field for her first-up assignment here and will need to sprint very well fresh.

She typically loves to ride the speed and that racing pattern may not be suited on this occasion, with plenty of on-pace types engaged elsewhere likely to “barbeque” her early.

Look for High Risk and La Mexicana to both carve across and apply the blowtorch early, forcing Craig Williams to work overtime punching up along the rail.

I expect her condition to give out late in a brutally run race, and she could be paddling inside the final 50m.

Any early pressure will make it a very tough task. Avoid.

 

Rosehill Race 5 #1 Harpo Marx $2.60

Possibly had his birthday last time out at Randwick, when finding the right part of the track after a strong tempo up front allowed him to get home hard.

He did win well last start which means the price is already compressed due to recency bias and with a different set up on this occasion at Rosehill, there is a good angle to take him on.

The speed in this race appears only moderate therefore if they ride him cold again, he will struggle to pick up the first half of the field who will be sprinting hard off the front.

The recreational punters will pile in here, however the current poison price of $2.60 is simply sickening. Lay.