2/2/19 Best bets at Rosehill Gardens

Rosehill Gardens plays host to a strong nine-race card, with the Group 2 Expressway Stakes the feature race of the day.  

With light showers predicted in the lead up to race day, the track is likely to start the day rated a Soft 5, with the chance of a downgrade if rain persists.

With the rail out 3m the entire circuit, expect the track to play fair. However, if lanes near the rail chop out, you can expect jockeys to head towards the middle of the track. 

Race 6 Expressway Stakes (Group 2) 1200m

While there are speedy gallopers engaged, it's unlikely they will go a fast clip in the small field of six. With no notable leader, a slow pace is predicted. 

Look for Tim Clark aboard Trapeze Artist (6) to take advantage of the slow early tempo and cross to the rails. 

Le Romain (3) can hold a forward position and Dothraki (5) should sit just off the leader.  

Expect Hartnell (4), Alizee (2), and Lanciato (1) to settle just in behind these two leaders.

Trapeze Artist will teach them a lesson sitting on top of a soft speed. He's the class horse in the race and is clearly the best suited over 1200m.

Look for Clark to ride positively from the widest draw and then carve out some soft sectionals before putting a gap in them as they hit the straight. 

Le Romain is a quality galloper, and his chances of winning will be enhanced by rain. He'll get an easy time of it in the run behind the leaders and will be within striking distance. If there are any chinks in the armour of Trapeze Artist, this Kris Lees trained gelding will come out on top. 

Lanciato won't be suited by the predicted slow tempo but will have the luxury of only being 5-6 lengths off the leaders. The 1200m isn't his go, but with a nice turn of foot, he can certainly run a place. 

Alizee opened $1.85 which was a ridiculous price with her expected travelling position back near last. From there she must chase down one of the best sprinters in the country.

She has a poor second-up record but has won twice over the distance, which will ensure the mug money will keep her as favourite. Looks vulnerable against some top-line sprinters in a small field.

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Trapeze Artist

2^nd  Le Romain

3^rd  Lanciato  

4^th  Alizee 

 

Race 7 Events by ATC Handicap (BM88) 1500m

There looks to be little pace engaged here with the early speed likely to come from Love Shack Baby (9). 

Hallelujah Boy (3) and Girl Tuesday (11) will take a forward position in the run, with Sweat Deal (7) and Seaway (2) to slot in behind them. 

With only a moderate tempo up front, those runners off the pace will have next to no chance of making up ground. 

Girl Tuesday is looking to make it five wins from five career starts and rest assured the Chris Waller stable have selected a soft target first-up. Drawn barrier 11, jockey Kerrin McEvoy will push forward to take advantage of the slow early speed and from a stalking position, prove far too strong for the opposition. Looks a good thing. 

Seaway has shown ability but does not possess the same class as the favourite. He gets the gun run two pairs back on the fence, and he'll be trying hard to bridge the gap on his stablemate. 

Love Shack Baby is set to get an easy time of it in the lead. Drops 7kg for his last start win and is looking to make it three consecutive wins. With a soft lead he'll be filling a place.  

Hallelujah Boy is another who gets a soft run on the pace. He won't go close to winning this, but he can add value for first-four punters.  

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Girl Tuesday 

2^nd  Seaway 

3^rd  Love Shack Baby

4^th  Hallelujah Boy

 

Race 8 Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (BM 78) 2000m

There is plenty of speed drawn out wide with Monsieur Sisu (17) and  Another Snappy (16) set to cross the field and take up the running.  

Letter to Juliette (12) and Bon Equus (15) will look to tag the leaders across, with Nahuel (6) and Nobu (7) set to get the run of the race just behind them. 

Well fancied runners Island Missile (1) and Asterius (4) could find themselves awkwardly placed back on the rails and may need some luck if the inside lanes are off.   

Nobu broke through in a BM70 last start and looks set to do the same against moderate opposition. Drawn perfectly in barrier seven, jockey Corey Brown will sit a few pairs back off the rails and will get the perfect trail into the race.

He drops 5kg from his last win and will only improve stepping out to the 2000m. The $14 looks well over the odds, and looks well worth an each-way bet.  

Nahuel won a BM70 last start and drops 2kg for this assignment. He's drawn to get a nice run and will be flying at them late. Must include in quaddies and quinellas.   

Asterius ran a solid second at the same set-up last start, and you'd think he's capable of running a place again. Should have two smart gallopers in front of him on turning for home, and he'll struggle to go past them. 

Island Missile has drawn poorly and will need a rescue helicopter if he wants to get out of a pocket. He's a good horse and can run in the top-four but will need plenty of luck to win.  

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Nobu 

2^nd  Nahuel 

3^rd  Asterius 

4^th  Island Missile

 

Race 9 Rise up at this Autumn Handicap (BM 88) 1200m

A race that looks to have plenty of early speed, which is sure to set-up for a back-marker to fly late.  

Look for All Too Royal (7) to cross from the middle draw and lead them up. 

All Over Bosanova (12) will come across from the wide draw and apply some pressure, with Aylmerton (2), Maximus (3) and Albumin (10) all pushing forward. 

The early favourite Paret (5) and the fancied Jorda (4) will sit at the rear of the field and peel wide off a fast tempo. 

Paret gets the speed map favours and should prove far too strong for his rivals. By the last race, the middle of the track should be the place to be, and you'll see this son of Harbour Watch tearing down the outside to the cheer of the Chris Waller faithful.

His last run was impressive and that form has stacked up, and he'll relish the extra 100m. Best bet of the day!

Performer has plenty of upside and could well fire fresh. The risk is from barrier nine he could end up three-wide the trip which will see him struggle late. If he slots into the running line, he'll push Paret all the way. 

Jorda has finally found a race with genuine speed on. She hasn't won since November 2017 and has run only one place in eight starts, so the $8 quote looks unders. She'll be doing her best work late. 

Maximus has drawn to do no work, but the risk is he'll get caught on the rails behind a few that are going backwards. Any race day rain will diminish his chances. 

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Paret 

2^nd  Performer

3^rd  Maximus 

4^th  Jorda

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