21/10/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

This week we've found two runners the mug punters are sure to steam into blindly, due to the “Berry” and “John Sadler” factors.

At Moonee Valley we are against a runner over the 1000m scamper, who looks set to face traffic issues due to the low draw in gate 2.

Whilst at Randwick, the classic “afterthought” theory is again prominent with a stayer backing up form the Group 1 Metropolitan.

Avoid both and expect a market drift.

 

Moonee Valley Race 2 #10 Starry Legend $3.10

This race appears deep enough to take on the favourite here. Although he's from the big betting John Sadler yard, he still looks well under the odds.

The inside draws over 1000m at The Valley can be a negative and from gate 2 if they opt to take a sit or can’t find the top, expect him to encounter traffic issues.

I'd much prefer to be with those drawn wider, and runners including Dexelation and Excess Funds should have the ability to jump and position in the more suitable moving line.  

Mugs will follow the money in with the “Sadler” factor, but I suggest they may be disappointed on this occasion. Avoid.

 

Randwick Race 7 #3 Zeyrek $2.45

This appears to be a classic “afterthought” following his run in the Group 1 Metropolitan, where he finished 4 of 17.

The Metrop run was good, however he would've been set to peak in that race and could easily be over the top now and on the way down.

Off the expected moderate tempo, his preferred run-on pattern also isn't suited and he may need a genuine tempo to be getting home hard.

The Tommy Berry booking scares me a touch as it is an upgrade, although it appears he’s picking from an even bunch.

I’m more than happy to risk him at the short quote and he can be viewed as an excellent risk. Lay.