21/08/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

With high-quality racing across the country this Saturday, we have identified two runners that face significant challenges and have come up well under the odds.

At Moonee Valley, expect a short-priced favourite to be flushed out the back of the surf due to an ugly speed map and dreaded inside draw.

Whilst in the Group 1 feature at Randwick, punters appear to have over-bet the Winx Stakes favourite due to her high profile and the Waller/J Mac factor.

Avoid both at their current prices and expect a market drift for each runner as we approach start time.  

 

Moonee Valley Race 3 #3 Corner Pocket $2.60

There looks to be plenty of early speed engaged here and this gelding will be working overtime to hold his usual on-pace position.

He is a big risk to be buried back along the inside and from there it can make it tricky to find clean air at The Valley.

Granted he is stacked with ability however launching from the inside draw (gate 1) makes the race shape on this occasion a huge risk to him.

I’d much prefer to be with a runner in the moving line, and both Mystery Shot and Ocular should fit this bill.

Expect he could be flushed out the back on entering the short Moonee Valley straight, and face a mammoth task to pick his way through.

With a long “picket fence” building he’ll sucker in plenty of mugs, however he looks an excellent risk to my eye. Lay.

 

Randwick Race 8 #12 Verry Elleegant $3.00

Gun mare who kicks off what is likely to be a long and arduous Spring campaign here, where I doubt Waller has her even half-fit for this with the long road ahead.

She is also noted for over-racing and that can be exacerbated when they are first-up, with “the edge” still to be knocked off.

There are big concerns J Mac won’t be able to get her to settle in the run and if she over-races against this quality field, her chances do not equate to the poison $3.

It appears the market are far too caried away with the J Mac/Waller factor here and possibly inferring Waller is keen to win his champion mares namesake race (Winx Stakes).

I can only see her drifting in the market as we approach start time and $4+ could easily be available late in betting. Avoid.