8/2/20 Caulfield Tips: C F Orr Stakes Preview

Distance	1400m
Grade	Group 1
Track Rating	Good 4
Prizemoney	$500,000
Class	WFA
2019 winner	Manuel ($21)

The C F Orr Stakes typically shapes as a battle of the fit runners with recent racing under their belt, against those who are returning fresh for future targets which are usually over a longer journey.

With the race distance over 1400m, it does open the door for some of the dour types. On this occasion however, I expect the horses with runs under their belt to dominate.

 

 Caulfield Track Traits

The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire course. Fine conditions are predicted for the remainder of the week and on Saturday.

With the tight turning circuit at Caulfield, expect there to be a slight advantage to those horses drawn inside and racing on or close to speed. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias. 

 

 Racing Market Movers

Scales Of Justice is the money horse in early betting, attracting heavy support to now trade at $2.80 from $3.30 openers.

All other runners remain steady.

 

 Key Runners

#1 Avilius $10.00

Is likely to start under the odds due to his high profile and powerful stable/jockey combination. 

He will be storming home late but I expect him to find a few of the fitter horses too sharp first-up. No. 

 

#2 Hey Doc $5.50

Only just missed in the Group 2 Australia Stakes over 1200m at The Valley last start, after leading throughout.

He did have some favours in that run however, with little pressure applied from the back.

He is the fit horse and should race close or on speed throughout, which could be a distinct advantage here. 

 

#3 Scales Of Justice $3.30 > $2.80

Peeled off the leader's back (Hey Doc) and stormed home over the top, in a brilliant first-up win at Moonee Valley.

The big money was on for the last start win and pro punters appear to be backing him heavily again in early markets for this race. 

He is very well found now following the last start Australia Stakes win and although he goes in everything, the value appears elsewhere. 

 

#4 Fierce Impact $9.50

Arrives first-up following back-to-back Group 1 wins to round out last preparation.

The stable are very keen to secure a stud deal and I expect they have him fully wound up and ready to win here first-up. 

They will be forced to go back from gate 8 with speed drawn inside, and whilst he is not well suited here I am still wary. Watch betting. 

 

#5 Kings Will Dream $21

Has plenty of class, however he will be looking for more ground and is likely to be at his best deeper into this preparation. No. 

 

#6 Fifty Stars $21 

Enjoys 1400m (6:3-1-0) and could fire here first-up if the leaders go mad up front.

He will get a dream run just behind the speed and won't spend a penny in the run.

Look for him to peel at the right time to run home hard. Big odds.  

 

#9 Night's Watch $17

Has turned into a genuine non-winner and whilst he does race at Group 1 level on most occasions, he should again find some of these too sharp. No.  

 

#10 Begood Toya Mother $8.50

The first-up effort in the Australia Stakes was excellent, where they crawled up front and he still chased hard only to be hampered late.

Although finishing 7 of 8 last time out, the effort was full of merit and he looks much better suited in this.

Looks the big improver. Yes.  

 

#11 Ringerdingding $13

Got well back first-up at Moonee Valley in the Australia Stakes, before charging hard late up along the inside.

He was superb off a slow speed last start and will simply eat up the extra distance here over 1400m.

The speed map has him sucking up along the inside throughout, and if the breaks come he should fight out the finish. Top hope. 

 

#12 Alabama Express $8.00

Is the new boom horse and could easily blow them all away. 

He was smashed in betting late from $4.20 to $3.50 at Flemington last time out, before winning with ease.

This is much harder, but I suspect he is right up to this class and can emerge as a new star of the turf. Goes on top. 

 

Of The Others

None Preferred.

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Alabama Express

2^nd  Ringerdingding 

3^rd  Scales Of Justice 

4^th  Begood Toya Mother

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