1/8/20 Moonee Valley Tips and best bets

The Valley kicks off the new season of racing in Victoria on Saturday, with a competitive nine race card scheduled.  

Spring is certainly in the air, as a few talented horses make their return to racing.

The track is currently rated a soft 5 and with fine weather throughout the area all week, participants will be met with a dry racing surface likely to be in the Good 4 range. 

The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit, which means there is 3m of untouched ground on the inside.

It wouldn't surprise me if this fresh ground gave horses a big advantage, compared to the chopped out surface out in the wide lanes.

Monitor early races as always and adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

 

 

Lewis has tipped 5 winners from his last 9 tips! 

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Mooney Valley Race 2 Tip #3 Jabali Ridge $7.50 

I'm keen to have a small each way play on Jabali Ridge here, who just looked a touch overs in early markets.

He's been freshened since an underwhelming run down the Flemington straight over 1200m last start, when he faded to finish 4 lengths off winner Sense Of Honour.

Savannah Cloud and Standoff also finished ahead of him in that clash, which shows the quality engaged in that race. 

He comes back to 1000m here off the break, which will be right up his alley.

His one attempt over this distance resulted in a win at Flemington earlier this year, where he beat Hungry Heart who went on to win a Group 2 in that preparation. 

I really liked his run two starts back behind Crosshaven over the 1200m at The Valley. He went through the line with no room under a hold, and was unlucky not to finish much closer.

He was strong in a recent Caulfield jump-out and appeared to run better than Tanker, who lines up here at shorter odds. 

The favourite will get a lot of favours and be hard to beat, however Jabali Ridge looks the main threat. 

At the odds, he's the horse I want to be with.

 

Moonee Valley Race 7 Tip #7 Polly Grey $4.40 

I'm a big fan of the way this ex-Kiwi mare continues to strongly progress in Australia under new trainer Chris Waller. 

She was the best of the beaten brigade behind Sircconi over the mile at Flemington, indicating she'd improve deeper into the preparation. 

Last start she was very unlucky, after being shuffled back to last on the turn with a wall of horses in front of her. However, she found room late to hit the line very well from a near impossible winning position. 

She sticks to equal grade for this assignment, and holds equal weight which is a massive advantage. 

Fourth-up and ready to peak, she's well suited at the 2040m.  

I concede that she's untested at The Valley which is a slight a concern, however the booking of Damian Lane should ensure she gets every chance.

With even luck, she'll be fighting out the finish.

 

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For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Moonee Valley tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.