18/09/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

We steered punters away from the hugely popular Big Parade at Kembla Grange last week, and the horse capitulated over the concluding stages as predicted.

This week we are against one at Caulfield who is very well exposed following a “flashing light” run last start. The mugs will be all over this runner.

Whilst at Randwick, a Bjorn Baker runner looks to have already had her “Grand Final” and could be on the way down.

 

Caulfield Race 6 #3 Annavisto $2.50

Every punter saw her “flashing light” run last start when she was three-wide and only just missed by 0.2 lengths behind the smart Turrath, who has since won.

Due to the glaringly obvious, this profile almost always seems to be over-bet by punters and you are likely to be taking well under true value.

This scenario should typically be viewed as an excellent opportunity to be against the market and avoiding the rock bottom odds.

There appears to be good speed from other runners in this field, and she may be pressured throughout if they opt to race in her preferred on-speed position.

This runner is also known to over-race and if she can’t reach the top to free-stride, expect her to fight the rider if restrained.

A great risk! Avoid.

 

Randwick Race 9 #14 She’s Ideel $3.30

Gets out to a more suitable trip (2000m) now, however so do many of her opposition here.

She strikes a quality field in this and I expect a few others to explode, as they edge closer to their peak.

Bjorn kicked her off first up in the Group 1 Winx Stakes, and there is a feeling she was ready to go for that run, with a slashing run to grab third. Is she now on the way down?

She may also have the race shape against her if they crawl, when launching from her preferred worse than midfield position.

Appears a good risk at the current odds and could be going “stale” here. Lay.