16/10/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

It is time to take on the boom horse Incentivise. 

For reasons outlined below, I believe he is an excellent risk this Saturday in the Caulfield Cup.

We can also fill up early by taking on one early in the Caulfield card in Race 1.

Expect both runners to be vulnerable at their short quotes.

 

Caulfield Race 1 #10 Eagles Crag $2.05

He’s very good, however Eagles Crag is now forced to tackle Benchmark 80 grade for the first time here and bumps into a few smart ones, including Seiners Express, Coolth and Mimis Award.

The jockey switch is a negative and although Jordy Childs has won on him before, the horse has since had Jamie Kah and Ben Allen. Back to Jordy for this run is not at all appetising.

The glue on shoes are also a concern, as his feet must be brittle and not up to the rigours of normal race plates with nails. If they have deteriorated, any soreness will make winning a tough task.

He won’t be the only runner looking to push forward in this field, with plenty of speed drawn elsewhere and happy to apply pressure early.

The set-up stinks on this occasion and he looks a great risk early in the day at Caulfield. Avoid.

 

Caulfield Cup #2 Incentivise $2.50

It’s now time to take on the boom horse, who has an ugly draw in gate 20 and will be forced to burn fuel early if they opt to race on speed.

Plenty of these will be hunting up from the inside and Brett Prebble will have his work cut out when navigating a path forward and across.

He was good last start in the Turnbull Stakes, where he was very brave late. However with more pressure here, there is some doubt he can hold them all at bay again.

This will be his toughest test to date, after racing against weak fields in Queensland before contesting two Melbourne Group 1 races that lacked depth.

Expect him to run out of gas late and collared inside the final 50m. Lay.