15/07/21 Flemington Tips & Best Bets for Saturday Racing

Melbourne best bets takes place at Flemington this Saturday, with nine competitive events to get through over the course of the afternoon. 

The track is currently rated a Soft 6 and with rain predicted throughout the latter part of the week, participants will be met with a wet racing surface.

The rail is out 3m the entire Flemington circuit and at this set-up, horses that are leading or on-pace have a 38.5% winning strike rate since 2018.

There is also a moderate head wind expected in the home straight, which will make it even harder for horses who are beyond midfield in the straight to swoop and win.

 

 

Flemington Race 5 Tip #13 Lowanna Magic $5.00

I'm keen on Lowanna Magic here in this BM78 sprint down the Flemington straight, coming off a great run at this same track and trip last start in much harder grade. 

He ran fourth in the Listed All VIC Sprint behind the Astrologist last time out and arguably should've finished closer after racing in restricted room throughout.

It was a career peak rating for this horse and proved a number of key things;

• he can handle the Flemington straight
• he handles a wet track; and
• he looks well placed at a higher level.

If he is able to replicate that last start run in very similar conditions this Saturday, he should be going very close to winning.

I feel he has a lot more upside to his main competitors, including Zorro's Dream who is now ninth-up into his prep and unlikely to bring anymore improvement.

I have him conservatively marked as a $3.00 favourite in my market, so I'm happy to take the $4.50 and above on offer.

 

Flemington Race 7 Tip #10 Dirty Thoughts $3.30

Very keen to see the return of the talented Dirty Thoughts, who comes into this BM84 over the 1000m fresh off a near 300-day spell.

There are queries over why she had such a long lay off, but she is a filly that could be set for a very good Spring campaign and this looks an excellent starting point.

Five runs last prep resulted in three wins and two placings, including a maiden demolition job first-up and finishing only 2 lengths off Swats That in a Group 3 event at The Valley.

That race in particular is an outstanding form reference, with Swats That running right up alongside September Run and other very talented Group 1 winners and performers.

Dirty Thoughts has had two jump outs leading in, and looked very strong winning both of them at Flemington in solid times.

She is unlikely to be fully wound-up for this event, and 1000m is arguably a touch short of her best. However, she is the clear class horse of this field and being trained on track means she should handle the straight with no worries.

The filly handles soft going, maps to be up on speed and carries only 54kg in a BM84 after finishing 2 lengths off a Group 1 performer last prep.