15/02/20 Flemington Tips: Black Caviar Lightning Preview

Distance	1000m
Grade	Group 1
Track Rating	Good 4
Prizemoney	$750,000
Class	WFA
2019 winner	In Her Time ($4.50)

The speedy Nature Strip has an absolute stranglehold on this year's edition of the Black Caviar Lightning.

He strikes a small but select field here, who do have good ability. However, they will be in trouble if they let the favourite roll along in front.

Despite being at skinny odds, the hot-pot is very hard to go past.  

 

 Flemington Track Traits

The Flemington surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit. 

Rain is predicted to fall in Melbourne over the next 48 hours, however the track should be in good condition come race day.

Expect them to come down the centre section of the Flemington straight, which is a typical race pattern for smaller fields over the 1000m course. 

 

 Racing Market Movers

Race favourite Nature Strip has eased slightly from the opening $1.45, to now trade at $1.50.

All other runners remain steady, with little action seen in early betting markets. 

 

 Key Runners

#1 Redzel $7.50

Has plenty of quality with two Everest titles under his belt and two Flemington straight wins, one of which was at Group 1 level. 

He prefers to lead and dictate, however that looks an impossible task here with Nature Strip engaged.

Likely to track the speed from just in behind, before presenting late. 

 

#2 Nature Strip $1.45 > $1.50

Could not have been more impressive when he was very dominant here at Flemington last start, over 1200m in the Group 1 VRC Sprint.

His Everest run two starts back was enormous, when he led at a solid tempo and still managed to finish only 1.3 lengths off the winner.  

He ticks all the boxes and should lead with ease and dictate to them all. Must go on top.  

 

#3 Despatch $34

Is very effective first-up (4:3-0-0) and he must be showing the McEvoy stable plenty behind closed doors to be entered in this. 

However, I suspect that he is not well suited in this grade and under Weight-For-Age conditions.

Likely to find a few of these far too classy. No.  

 

#4 Gytrash $11

Is the horse on a steep upward trajectory and has much more room for improvement than most of these.

Lightly raced and he has shown a tonne of ability all throughout his career, with 6 wins and 7 placings from 14 starts.

Look for him to stalk the leaders and he is some hope of charging home over the top. Can win. 

 

#5 I Am Excited $51

Has the run-on profile to get home hard over the top, which could suit here if the leaders go too fast. 

She has been readied with two Randwick trials and they have booked gun hoop Ben Melham to ride. 

Although this looks a tough ask first up, a win would not completely shock. The smokey. 

 

#6 Tofane $19 

The stable are flying (Alabama Express), however this appears a very ambitious first-up assignment. 

Look for her to rattle home from the rear when its all over. No.  

 

#7 Loving Gaby $6.00

Manikato Stakes champ who has a significant pull in the weights (53.5kg) as a three-year-old entering at Weight-For-Age conditions.

She is very adaptable and has shown that she can race on-speed or run-on from back in the field. 

The stable have stated that she will take good improvement from this run and may not be fully wound-up, however she is still a serious threat. Yes.

 

Of The Others

None Preferred.

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Nature Strip

2^nd  Gytrash

3^rd  Loving Gaby

4^th  I Am Excited