14/12/19 Horse racing Lays of the Day

We look to continue the good run of identifying key runners to avoid, after advising punters to steer clear of Kingston Town favourite Tuscan Queen last week.

The mugs were sucked in and spat out after the filly flopped, making it 13 successful lay selections from our past 14.  

This week’s lays focus on two highly favoured runners at Flemington.

Both horses appear significantly unsuited due to their racing profiles and the race shape they are set to encounter.

Avoid both and expect a market drift for each. 

 

Flemington Race 2 #3 Bam’s On Fire $2.25 

Was rolled as the short priced favourite last start after getting too far back, and it appears as though she is likely to suffer a similar fate here. 

She faced a near impossible task at Ballarat when coming from a long way back, and her racing pattern is always a concern in slowly run races.

I doubt they will be flying along in this, with the small field likely to come down the centre to outside section of the track at only a moderate tempo.

Expect the field to creep toward the more favoured outside section of the track and this runner (from gate 2) to be trapped in the inferior ground towards the inner.

She will be storming home late again, when it’s all over. Lay.  

 

Flemington Race 5 #7 Halvorson $2.70

Chalked up a big first-up win and is now well exposed and sure to attract all the mug money.

He was excellent at Flemington first-up, when he came from well back to get up on the line.

However, I suspect that he needs to peak up again to be winning this.

This field has plenty of depth and with only a moderate tempo predicted, his run-on profile is not suited at all here.

The big professional model players will be keen to take him on late from a speed map angle, and it seems as though they've been marking Dean Yendall down in their ratings in recent times.

Expect him to get back to near last off the sluggish tempo and simply run out of ground to reel them all in. Avoid. 

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