14/08/21 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

This week we have identified two runners at Caulfield that come up well under the odds, and should both drift in the market close to start time.

Midway through the card, an ugly speed map could see a popular favourite trapped wide and feel the pinch late coming off the 7-week freshen.

Whilst in the last race of the day, the favourite is likely to be over-bet and also faces significant speed map challenges.

 

Caulfield Race 4 #3 Bella Nipotina $3.00

Strikes a deep race here with plenty of talent elsewhere, which makes the current $3 on offer appear well under the odds.

She faces a tricky speed map from gate 7 and if they decide to press forward early, there is a big chance she will be trapped wide throughout.

With a tough run, expect her condition to give out late following the soft lead up into this with a 7-week freshen.

Expect strong support to come for Parlophone late, after her flashing light run at Morphettville first-up and with the “Kah factor” in-play.

I can only see her price drifting from here and $4+ could be available come start time. Lay.

 

Caulfield Race 9 #7 La Mexicana $2.60

The low draw in gate 2 appears to be against her here, where she risks being buried back along the rail throughout.

There appears to be a tonne of speed drawn wider, which could carve across on top of her or force her to work overtime hunting up to hold a position.

Neither option is appetising for punters diving into $2.60.

The Caulfield track can be a death trap over the sprint trips for those drawn in close, and runners in the moving line often hold an advantage.

The second up record (2:2-0-0) is excellent and she is 1 from 1 at the track and distance. However, both factors will ensure she is well found and likely to be over-bet. Avoid.