13/10/20 Melbourne Cup early predictions

Date	3rd November 2020
Distance	3200m
Grade	Group 1
Track	Flemington
Prize money	$8,000,000
Class	Handicap
2019 winner	Vow and Declare ($11.00)

The 160th running of the Melbourne Cup will hold a unique place in the history of Australia's greatest race, after enduring one of its most challenging years yet. 

Once a race dominated by Australian and New Zealand bred horses, it has fast become an international attraction with the illustrious Group 1 event along with it's $8 million purse now attracting some of the best stayers from across the globe. 

With just over three weeks until the time honoured race, we talk to David Gately and Michael Gannon to get their early predictions. 

 

Melbourne Cup: Local Horses to follow  

Gator says...

VERRY ELLEGANT

A five-time Group 1 winner and I think she is still improving!

The 3200m is an unknown and not many Cup winners salute fresh at 1400m, but her Turnbull Stakes win showed how tough she is. 

She went back in a slowly run race by Group 1 standards (-2.3 lengths vs Group 1 average) and was out four-wide before the 800m with no trail.

She kicked strongly then had to call on her toughness late to score. She was race-fastest 600m-to-400m then 2nd-fastest 400m-to-200m before 11.46 last 200m (6th-fastest). 

Live chance and looks in the top 3 local hopes. 

 

RUSSIAN CAMELOT

Profiles similarly to Surprise Baby last year, who was as good as any run in the 2019 Melbourne Cup.

His two wins to kick off the prep were great and his last start second to Arcadia Queen in the Caulfield Stakes was full of merit. 

He looks set to tackle the Cox Plate before heading to the Cup. If he absorbs pressure and sprints well in the Cox Plate, watch out Melbourne Cup!

SURPRISE BABY

The recent profile of our great race is not 'the unlucky runner the year prior', however this is no average year.

Plus, this horse is still lightly raced and will not pay a significant weight penalty after running fifth in last year's cup. 

His Turnbull run was better than it reads on paper. Second-up over 2000m had him vulnerable and he wasn't able to quicken when asked, hence he missed the gap, raced tight, before running home well. 

His last 200m was in 11.28, the second fastest of the race! Much was made of the blanket finish, but this is the nature of top-end Group 1 racing under these weight conditions.

He's proven at the trip and a huge run this year wouldn't shock.

 

Melbourne Cup: International Horses to follow  

Gannon says...

SANTIAGO

An Irish stayer trained by the master Aiden O'Brien, who gets in with only 53.5kg.

His third to Stradivarius in the Group 1 Goodwood was fantastic and enough to suggest he's well placed here. 

O'Brien knows a thing or two about travelling horses to Australia and has recently tasted success with Magic Wand in the Group 1 Mackinnon and Hunting Horn in the Group 3 Moonee Valley Cup.

At the current quote of $13, I'm happy to side with him on top. 

 

TIGER MOTH

Another stayer from the O'Brien yard.

He's only had 4 starts and the fact he's aimed at a Melbourne Cup at his fifth career run is something else. 

In saying that, lightly raced international four-year-old's have had great success in recent years and he fits the mould.

Santiago did defeat him at their last clash, but Tiger Moth now meets him 1kg better at the weights. 

The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is a huge pointer that this is O'Brien's top pick.

McEvoy has ridden 2 of the past 4 Cup winners in Almandin (2016) and Cross Counter (2018). The gun hoop is on track to win his fourth Cup (Brew 2000), with the early betting having Tiger Moth the $7 favourite.

 

ASHRUN

Purchased by Australian Bloodstock, this guy looks to have a stack of upside.

He's currently 38th on the order of entry, so he'll need some luck to gain a start.

His last two runs have come over 3000m, which is a big plus. 

He's likely to line-up in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday and I suspect we'll see a very strong effort. 

At the $26, he's worth a throw at the stumps. 

 

2020 Melbourne Cup All-In market (Top 20)

RUNNER	WIN $
Tiger Moth	7.00
Russian Camelot	9.00
Surprise Baby	9.00
Santiago	12.00
Finche	18.00
Verry Elleegant	19.00
Anthony Van Dyck	21.00
Master Of Reality	21.00
Prince Of Arran	21.00
Ashrun	26.00
Buckhurst	26.00
Dashing Willoughby	26.00
Twilight Payment	26.00
Warning	26.00
Master Of Wine	31.00
Sir Dragonet	31.00
Le Don De Vie	34.00
Nickajack Cave	34.00
Persan	34.00
Stratum Albion	34.00