12/9/20 Saturday racing tips: Lays of the Day

In this week's edition of Lays of the Day, we plot the downfall of two false favourites running around in Sydney and Melbourne.

There's a horse in the opener at Rosehill who has come up odds-on and looks alarmingly vulnerable.

Meanwhile at Flemington, a high profile WA raider looks a big risk as she faces a number of challenges.

See which horses you should be putting a line through this weekend.

 

 Saturday Racing Lay from Michael Gannon

Rosehill Race 1 #3 Cadre Du Noir $1.75

Reasoning: Speed Map, Class Rise

There is no doubt that this galloper deserves favouritism, however the $1.75 looks poison odds. 

Prior to his last start, he was competitive in Saturday BM78 grade before dropping in class to win by 5 lengths and defeat the talented Austria. 

He's obviously got some talent, but at the price he'd want to have plenty. 

It's his first trip to Sydney, which has brought plenty unstuck before him and he's unlikely to get his own way in front this time. 

He'll have company most of the way, with Pressure (2) likely to push forward along with Merlinite (5).

I have him mapped two pairs back, which will mean he'll have to win against his usual racing pattern on Saturday. 

He can go around without me.

Follow @M_Gannon_

 

 Saturday Racing Lay from Lewis Willoughby

Flemington Race 3 #1 Arcadia Queen $3.30

Reasoning: Barrier Draw, Weight, Rain

Comes here second-up off an okay return last start, when finishing 2.6 lengths behind Savatiano in the P.B Lawrence at Caulfield over 1400m. 

She found a comfortable position midfield in that clash, but was too keen when the tempo slackened and she was only one-paced through the line. 

The mare can certainly improve second-up, but gets no weight swing on last start winner Savatiano and has to find an extra 2.6 lengths from her last start performance.

Savatiano will only improve from that first-up win as well, whilst Arcadia Queen gets no favours again through the wide barrier draw. 

I'm not sure she will be able to reverse the last start result due to the fact she gets absolutely no favours coming into this race, and any rain around early in the day further hinders her chances. 

The current leaderboard between myself and Grant & Alana Williams trained horses is 2-1, after Showmanship scored impressively at The Valley last start when I was against him.

I'm confident I can take a 3-1 lead here.

 

Follow @LewieWilloughby