Horse Racing Tips for Pakenham Cup Day 2021

Pakenham plays host to their feature race day on Saturday, with the running of the Listed Pakenham Cup.

The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather predicted over the coming days, participants will be met with a perfect racing surface. 

The rail is situated in the true position for the entire circuit and at this set-up, the track should play fairly. 

 

 

Pakenham Race 1 #7 Tycoon Bec $3.60

I'm leaning towards the Cumani/Kah combination in the opener, with Tycoon Bec set to get us onto the front foot.

Unfortunately, she got softened up in the lead first up at Geelong behind a very handy type in Turbeau.

She raced 7.5 lengths quicker than standard time to the 600m mark, and then still managed to come home only 7 lengths slower than standard. 

The maths will tell you that although finishing third, she was still 0.5 lengths inside standard time and it was a clear excusable effort after going way too hard in front.

She also pulled up with a very slow recovery rate as noted in the steward's report.

She's clearly a talented mare, who was unbeaten from three starts in her first prep, including a dazzling front running display at Flemington earlier this year.

Second-up now, she's fitter and gets the booking of J Kah who has returned to the races following her suspension. 

The map indicates she'll get to the lead and should be able to control the tempo to her liking. 

If she can quicken from the 600m and unsettle her rivals, she will be mighty hard to run down.

The mile suits and all signs point to her relishing 2000m and more.

The firm track is also a big positive and I expect her to prove to good in the opener on what is will be a great day of racing. 

 

Pakenham Race 4 #6 Rusheen $9.00

This is a cracking race on the card, and I've identified value in the Noonan runner, Rusheen. 

Rusheen comes through the same race as the favourite, Unflinching, finishing only 2 lengths off that runner after getting a fair way back in running.

Unflinching was able to control proceedings in front, albeit at a strong tempo, and used the tight Valley circuit to his advantage to win.

The more open Pakenham circuit will allow to run on. He has a great turn of foot, running his last 400m sectional time an incredible 14 lengths quicker than standard time last start.

Adding further merit to that effort, his last 200m was 6 lengths quicker and overall race time 1 lengths quicker than standard too.

On paper, there looks a lot of speed in front and the harder they go, the easier it should become for Rusheen to get clear air and finish over the top of them late. 

I think the near double-figure price is very generous and he looks a very good each way bet in one of the races of the day. 

 

For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Pakenham Tips for today's races, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.